Yes, We Can Make the Stimulus More Stimulating

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Perspective

Yes, We Can Make the Stimulus More Stimulating
President-elect Barack Obama orders lunch at the famous restaurant Ben's Chili Bowl in Washington, DC. (Photo: Reuters)

    President Obama could not find any economists who were able to see the housing bubble for his economic team. Fortunately, he indicated that he would be willing to listen to those of us who did in designing his stimulus package.

    In response to his request for ideas on how to make his economic recovery package more effective, I have put together the following list of seven proposals. This is a mix or match list, intended to be added to the list of items already suggested, although given the severity of the downturn, all of them could probably be included without causing concern about excessive deficits.

    1) Extend Health Insurance

    Offer a $2,000 tax credit for any firm that gives health insurance to employees not currently covered. Match at a 70 percent rate any improvements in health care coverage (e.g. lower employee premiums) up to $1,000. If 20 million workers get coverage, this will cost $40 billion a year. If another 50 million workers get added benefits that average $800 per year, this will cost the government another $28 billion for a total cost of $68 billion a year.

    This would be a great first step towards universal coverage. If President Obama also allowed employers and individuals to buy into a Medicare-type public plan, then he will have gone a long way towards reforming the health care system.

    2) Publicly Funded Clinical Trials

    Start a system of publicly funded clinical trials. The point would be to take the conduct of trials out of the control of the drug industry so that doctors and researchers would have immediate and full access to all research findings.

    As a quid pro quo for paying for the trials, the government would get control of the licensing of the patent. The drugs developed through this system would all be sold as generics costing somewhere near $4 apiece at Wal-Mart. The payback from this would be enormous, instead of spending $330 billion a year on prescription drugs in 2012, we might spend closer to $30 billion. We'll be paying $30 billion a year or so for clinical trials, and maybe close to that much in licensing fees, and getting much better medicine.

    And, as a side benefit, people in developing countries would get cheap drugs too. We could put an end to "free-trade" agreements that try to jack up drug prices in poor countries through stronger patent protections. Total cost: $30 billion a year.

    3) Cash for Clunkers

    Princeton economist Alan Blinder recently argued in the NYT for a program of buying back older, more-polluting cars at a premium over their book value. This would get the most-polluting cars off the road (raising average full efficiency) and put some money into the pockets of the people who own them. Most of these car owners will have low and moderate income, so we will be putting cash into the hands of people who need it and will spend it. Blinder calculated that we get 5 million older cars a year off the road for a cost of less than $20 billion a year.

    4) Subsidies for Public Transportation

    People in the United States take more than 10 billion trips on public transportation each year. This has enormous environmental benefits. Not only are these people consuming much less energy by using public transit, by not driving themselves, they are reducing congestion, and therefore reducing the amount of energy wasted in traffic jams.

    The government can encourage public transit and get money into the pockets of the people who use it (disproportionately low- and moderate-income people), by giving a $1 subsidy for each trip that gets directly passed on in lower fares. For someone taking a subway or bus twice a day, this will amount to savings of $500 a year. The government can include some additional funding to buy more buses and train cars. The cost would be approximately $13 billion a year.

    5) Funding for Writers/Artists/Creative Workers

    In the New Deal there was both a federal arts project and a federal writers project. These programs employed thousands of young artists and writers. A creative stimulus package can extend this idea for the Internet Age. Suppose that President Obama made $10 billion a year available for state and local governments to support various types of creative and artistic work. This could include music, movies, writing books, even journalism. The one condition for support is that all material be made freely available in the public domain. (Better yet, it could have copyleft protection.)

    This funding would be sufficient to employ 200,000 people a year at an average of $50,000 each. This would put an enormous amount of creative work in the public domain that people all over the world could download at zero cost. In the first year or two, we could have this program administered through public agencies, but in later years we can have people choose for themselves which work they want to support through a tax credit. The cost would be approximately $10 billion a year.

    6) Funding for the Development of Open Software

    In the same vein, the government can spend $2 billion a year to develop open source software. This money can be used to further develop and simplify open source operating systems such as Linux, as well other forms of free software. The payoffs from this spending would be enormous. Imagine that every computer buyer in the world would be able to get a computer for which the operating system was free, as was almost all the software that they would ever use.

    This would surely save consumers an average of at least $200 per computer. With sales at close to 20 million a year, the savings in the United States alone could easily exceed the cost of supporting software development. Adding in the benefits (and presumably some contributions) from the rest of the world, we will be way ahead by going the route of publicly funded open software open software. The cost would be $2 billion a year.

    7) Pay for Shorter Workweeks and More Vacations

    The United States lags the rest of world in that its workers are not guaranteed any vacation time, sick leave or family and parental leave. In Europe, five or six weeks a year of paid vacation is standard. Also, all West European countries guarantee their workers some amount of paid sick leave and paid parental leave.

    The stimulus gives us a great chance to catch up with the rest of the world. The government could give make up the pay for two years for any paid cutback in hours, up to 10 percent of total hours worked in a year and $3,000 per worker. This means that if a firm offered workers who previously had no paid vacation, five weeks of vacation a year, the government would provide a tax credit to pick up the tab, up to $3,000 per worker. Similarly, if they extended 10 days of paid sick leave, the government would provide a tax credit for the amount actually used. If employers of 70 million workers (half of the labor force) received an average tax break of $2,500, the cost would be $170 billion a year.

    There are undoubtedly other items that should be added to this list. As President Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said, we should not allow this crisis to be wasted. We should not be trying to just bring the economy back to where it was before the housing bubble crashed. Rather, we should be looking to create a cleaner, fairer, better country. Not all of it will be accomplished with the initial stimulus package. Not everything will even be accomplished in President Obama's first term.

    The real question is whether the country can do better than the modest stimulus package that has been laid out thus far. President Obama knows that we can.

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Dean Baker is a macroeconomist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He previously worked as a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor at Bucknell University. He is a regular Truthout columnist and a member of Truthout's Board of Advisers.


Comments

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Dean, a well-conceived set

Dean, a well-conceived set of recommendations. Let's add a $2000 tax credit for local producers and an equal amount for investors who invest in local market gardeners and small farms.


All the ideas are great

All the ideas are great except the Clunker. It's a clunker. It sounds like you are expecting the low income people receiving the cash to spend it on other than another auto. Not realistic. And if they are actually to use it to buy another car, it will certainly cost more than the one that they can, probably, barely afford now. Other than that, excellent input.


Dean, hurrah, someone

Dean, hurrah, someone finally proposing something besides bailing out the financial industry Give some thought to Grants to people or VERY SMALL companies who have innovative ideas. Currently the Gov grant programs are yet another way of transferring wealth upward not to where it is actually needed and would be put to good use. Good thinking J


Mr.Baker I will have more

Mr.Baker I will have more confidence that things will be turned around when I see that Mr.Obama brings you into the fold! This is by far the most thorough and forward thinking stimulus that I have seen anywhere! Ideas 2,3,5 and 6 innovative. They are by far better than anything that I have seen or heard. Kudos to you sir!


I hope Obama takes you up on

I hope Obama takes you up on these proposals. I love the one about the drugs! I still believe all of us want Single Payer health care--privately delivered, publicly funded. It is also the most cost efficient way to deliver health care to all Americans. Let's get that on the list too.


Lets deal with homeless

Lets deal with homeless people. How about free college to people who lose their jobs, or better yet, money to go to college. Healthy school lunches would be a great investment on health. More meals on wheels for our seniors. More money into rehabing buildings to be energy effiecient. Free daily multi-vitamins. Early childhood learning centers, get preschool ready for K. Broadband super highways. Keep people in their homes, rewrite bankruptcy laws, give people money to help them with rents. There are a hundred things I can think to do to revitalize our econ and I'm just a guy living out in the suburbs remembering the 70's.


No matter how much "magical

No matter how much "magical invisible monies" we dump into our economy stimulus fixes isnt going to be a long term fix for un/under qualified employment opportunities. What needs to be done is bring back American raw material manufacturing, take back the outsourced international work force by imposing stiffer import tariffs & corporate taxes.. If the Label doesnt say made in the United States of America by U.S. American manufacturing companies.. It wont be a cheaper avenue for corporations to outsource our labor market to other countries. The gist is to embargo imports with stiffer tax and tariffs... If its cheaper to make it here in the US, the US labor force will definitely expand...


Dean, your proposals are

Dean, your proposals are worthy of further serious investigation. Health care is a keystone opportunity. Its cost has become a weight around the neck of every business and individual. As Thomas Friedman wrote years ago, The president of GM ought to be leading picket lines for national health care [paraphrased]. Public transportation is another great opportunity. Advances have been made, e.g., personal rail transit (PRT), which cost less to build and do not require the volume of mass transit systems. One request: What can you suggest which would boost US exports? Long term, we can not maintain our standard of living running balance of payment deficits.


That #5 is on the list at

That #5 is on the list at all is a very good thing. However, to require that all intellectual property be in the public domain is quite unfair. If a business gets start-up support, they are not required to pay all profits to the government in perpetuity. But that's basically what this proposal does for creative workers. Basically, "OK, we'll give you a small stipend to keep you alive as you hone your art/craft, but then we get to make all the money." ~~ Lane Baldwin - alifewithspirit.blogspot.com


If I can believe what I have

If I can believe what I have heard and read over the years and I think I can..., then there are an abundance of Tens of Billions in Dollars worth of Defense Contracts that are wasteful outdated, outmoded, nonsensical, not aligned with current needs and strategies, and some are even designed to fight against the non-existent Soviet Union... and almost all of such are IMPOSSIBLE to end, kill, cancel or even modify because almost all Defense Contracts are farmed out to as many or all Congressional districts in the Nation in order to put jobs on the line if canceled and each and every Congressional Member in both House and Senate in a position of having to DEFEND SUCH JOBS IN ORDER TO DEFEND THEIR JOB AND THE VOTES THEY NEED TO KEEP IT. And so, apparently out of fear and self interest, they continue to suck big bucks down the Budget Deficit Sinkhole for no other reason than ''THAT"S JUST THE WAY IT IS FOLKS..'' And so... NEW IDEA..!! In the New World of Obama, perhaps moving on to our new, coming era of a Green Economy might also provide a way out of wasteful Defense projects and instead of having to print new money to go Green, Lose Jobs, Lose Votes, we could 'RE-CONTRACT, RETOOL and RETRAIN those very same Industries, Corporations and Folks Now Employed therein in those very same Companies in all those same Congressional Districts all over the Country to help build the technology that will take the Nation to a much Cleaner and Safer and Greener Nation... WAH LAH... SLOW THE PRINTING PRESSES...!!! Funding Money already Budgeted now ReDirected, Reassigned, RE-Budgeted towards current Economic AND Strategic Needs in one Fell Swoop.!! So President Obama and Mr Bernanke--- Stimulating...?


I hope all this sets us on

I hope all this sets us on the path to less stuff, more quality time, less mindless consumption. Your ideas go in that direction. Thanks.


World distributional justice

World distributional justice is the compass heading for healing global economic and environmental collapse. Though many suggestions have merit that will contribute to a sustainable culture in North America, local revitalization will not succeed if it does not provide a world-wide model for those who were been left behind during consumerism. Including the real cost of subsidies, resources and waste disposal in the cost of goods sold will level the playing field and elevate justice and cooperation to prerequisites for sustainability.


Re No. 5: The New Deal WPA

Re No. 5: The New Deal WPA project has proved to be a real boon for genealogists. In fact, if it were not for the INDEXED U.S. Census records, done as a WPA project, I submit that the genealogy growth industry would not have taken off as it has.


Sad to say, the Obama

Sad to say, the Obama economic team is a bunch of clunkers! From Summers, to Romer, to Geithner--they''re all deficit hawks, and anti-regulation free (and crazy) marketers. Give them the boot! For too long economists has sucked at the teat of Milton Friedman, the University of Chicago's gift to Chilean dictator August Pinochet. This man and his mathematical models have impoverished the world. Enough! Dean Baker, Jared Bernstein, James Galbraith, John Maynard Keynes are the right people to have on board to save us from the economic abyss that Bush,Rubin,Summers,Greenspan, Schumer, Paulson,Corzine, et. al. have put us in.


Wow. Wow! Dean, you have

Wow. Wow! Dean, you have made an old Sandwichman very, very happy. I love #7.


Dean, Proposal 6)

Dean, Proposal 6) drawback Dean, I truly like this approach but President Obama must think also in the unemployed people from Microsoft (and others) after such strong support for OSS community. For sure it will be a benefit for the private consumer and it will open a highway for the Open Software Consulting companies but a lot of Software companies could close or be forced to layout thus increasing USA unemployment.


@Miguel Espiga - Don't

@Miguel Espiga - Don't worry, I'm sure Microsoft would be allowed to pull some money out of the stimulus by contributing to Open Source software as well. In fast, I'm sure they'd even be allowed to make money on the deal by supporting the software afterwards. On the downside for Microsoft however, they wouldn't be the only vendor supporting the said software. They would need to _compete_ with other vendors.


Regarding idea #6, the

Regarding idea #6, the government could further mandate that public institutions use Open Source Software. Not only would this spur the demand but it would also save the government millions of dollars in licensing fees.


Ah, the arrogance, did you

Ah, the arrogance, did you mean to say, "I know how to spend our children and grandchildren's money better than 300 million+ people and business making independent decisions". Moreover, many of these suggestions are strictly counterproductive. #7 is exactly why much of Western Europe has institutionalized lack of upward mobility and double digit unemployment. If it is difficult to produce returns in excess of an employee's cost and difficult to terminate employees then you by definition make it difficult to hire employees.


I work in the Open Source

I work in the Open Source Industry. Are you suggesting that the government help us the way they helped the steel industry, railroads or auto industry. No thank you! We are doing quite fine on our own.


So ironic that you're

So ironic that you're incenting businesses to create and fund a more socialist system. Wait, I guess that's not ironic at all considering that the government has nothing to redistribute without pockets to raid. At least it's subtle pocket raiding in this case: more nuanced and refined. Do you think that drug companies would be interested in trading the funding of clinical trials for drug patent rights? If that's not something they would be interested in, what then would be their motivation to continue to spend in R&D at that point? You might as well go all the way with your proposal and suggest that government should fund all drug R&D as well.


Not sure on the Cash for

Not sure on the Cash for Clunkers concept - there is a significant movement which says older cars are actually better for the environment, no matter what sort of pullution they put out. The environmental cost of producing a new hybrid in Japan and shipping it to the States would still outweigh running your clunker until it died. You might be better off allowing grants for older cars to be made more efficient (a free service which replaces worn tyres, brakes and catalytic converters) than paying people to go and buy new.


Here's my idea: 1. Set up a

Here's my idea: 1. Set up a website called getfree.gov 2. Have citizens list their info and SS# 3. List current debts (and gov will verify with ss#) 4. The govnment will pay down the debt of the highest interest rate debt up to $20,000 5. If there is $ left (meaning you have little or no debt), you get a stimulious check This will stimulate the economy, be fully transparent, give the tax payees their own money, and infuse bank, car loan companies , mortgage holders, and other debt holders an infusion of cash. Mr. Obama, this is the way...


Re #6: If the purpose is to

Re #6: If the purpose is to help with the development of projects that directly compete with commercial products, that may not be good for the economy (at least on paper, see broken glass fallacy). If the purpose is to further education, develop technology skills, and encourage the software development environment in the US, then it is great. Software and associated computer hardware are the core enabling technologies for most of our modern society. If the products/development efforts include novel, state-of-the-art, research-based, innovative products, it will be better for the US in the long term. The US did this when they developed the core technology that became the Internet. Such a policy will help reverse the US brain drain and foster the competitiveness of US engineering talent. If done right its a big win (a big IF considering the depth of talent in Congress -- the opposite of progress). Even companies should get some grants IF and ONLY IF their products developed with such funds would be available via an OSS license (Adobe, Apple, Microsoft, Sun, even the DOD contractors). InQTel provided government funds to develop software packages for their problem space (most not OSS). NASA funds software development, a lot of which is open source. NSA supports SeLinux....


If you like Dean's #7 "pay

If you like Dean's #7 "pay for shorter workweeks and more vacations, you can vote for it at http://citizensbriefingbook.change.gov/ideas/viewIdea.apexp?id=087800000004sAe&srPos=1&srKp=087"


What happens when all the

What happens when all the SUVs on the road get a little older. Will their low mileage qualify them as clunkers? Is the government going to buy a third of the car industry's output from the last fifteen years?


Open source software for

Open source software for everyone! I can get behind that. Anything that stops Microsoft from abusing the entire world is ok in my book.


I must admit I admire the

I must admit I admire the optimism of people who still think we're going to have any mechanism for which to pay for all this spending! I'd like to add something to #5: steering the country towards more of a meritocracy. Have the government work with professors around the country to compose a 1000 question test covering 10 topics. Sociology, history, science, math, computer literacy, psychology, economics, etc. Then allow everyone to take the test and compete for prize money. Award $50,000 to the top millionscores. This will effectively transfer a large portion of wealth to the most educated people, which would theoretically strengthen the economy. Also, some kind of reward to those few people who managed to stay out of debt. It only makes sense to give money to people who know how to manage it!


Re #6: How about open source

Re #6: How about open source voting machine software? Let's start with that. If voting machine software were open source, states could see that there are no tricks involved. The software could run on any PC so that states could choose their own platform. Or voting machine vendors would have to produce hardware (and hardware only) that met the specs. No more man-in-the-middle attacks, no more vote flipping. Solve any problems easily as they develop. Check software integrity at any time. Same for ballot scanners. Open source can help assure that the vote count is honest.


After listening to all those

After listening to all those "bright" economists and their "fantastic" ideas for the past few years, I am so relieved to see that there are people that can actually THINK and propose REAL ideas, instead of bailouts. /respect


I would suggest the country

I would suggest the country develop a district energy system like has been done in Denmark, Finland and other European nations. We can use the heat generated from electric generating facilities and pipe it to homes and businesses and provide heat, hot water and this "waste heat" can also be converted into air conditioning. There is enough "waste heat" generated at the electric generating stations in the US now to heat and cool a large percentage of the buildings in the U.S. The end result is the nation would use less fuel, emit less CO2 and particulates, and put people to work building the transmission systems. Denmark started building District Energy systems over 20 years ago and they have created thousands of green jobs, grown their economy over 50%, and became an energy exporting nation instead of an energy importing country. What is needed are federal funds, federal legislation to supporting funding the build out of district energy systems, and laws regulating new electric generating stations so they are much more energy efficient like has been done in Denmark. Most electric generating stations operating in the U.S. burn as much fuel that is not used and is considered "waste heat" and is piped into the atmosphere. By building district energy systems in the US we can accomplish: 1) creating tens of thousands more green jobs 2) reduce fuel consumption considerably in the US 3) help deal with global warming 4) create energy security in the US. This has been done in other parts of the world and we should learn from other countries like Denmark and do the same -- everyone wins.


How sensible! How decent!

How sensible! How decent! How lovely! How equalitarian! How quixotic!


Sign me up for #6. While I'm

Sign me up for #6. While I'm fortunate to have a well paying, world-changing job, I find it frustrating that my open source project (Tux Paint: educational art software for children) always has to take a back seat to day jobs. I've always daydreamed about getting paid to work on it.


After we spend $2 billion on

After we spend $2 billion on open-source software, who will maintain it? Linux will be maintained forever, but after the money runs out, who will be left to maintain all this code? Isn't this like feeding the wildlife and then (1) the wildlife population soars way beyond the natural limits and (2) they lose the ability to find natural food sources? Wouldn't this initiative steal workers from high-potential companies, to their detriment and thus to the detriment of the economy? It's not as though laid-off factory workers or investment bankers will be doing this coding... (although, if the $2 billion re-trained people from industrial sectors...) How quickly would this stimulate the economy? Wouldn't this take forever to bear fruit, as compared to buying cement and steel and paying construction workers next month?


Sorry, but most of these

Sorry, but most of these ideas, we already tried them in Europe (I live in Spain) and they were not effective to avoid the economic crash. Moreover, once you commit to a subsidy, you add a fixed cost to the government's spendings that is later impossible to reduce. In Madrid, the City Council pays 50% of the cost of each public subway ticket. The City Council gets this money by from taxes, with the difference that it is a cost imposible to reduce since people will never accept to pay twice de amount for lower taxes. It is true that having good social protection reliefs the pain. Around here, everybody gets good quality public health and schools, cheap transports and unemployment fees. But you have to pay for these things one way or another. Whether you them or the goverment pays them in behalf of you by collecting higher taxes, does not matter for the shake of economic growth.


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