Obama's Foreign Policy Advantage

by: Matthew Yglesias  |  The American Prospect

Obama's Foreign Policy Advantage
Presidential candidate Barack Obama arrives in Amman, Jordan, in July, after visiting Afghanistan and Iraq. Though foreign policy issues have been thrown to the sidelines in recent weeks, columnist Matthew Yglesias urges the Obama campaign to put them back on the table. (Photo: AFP / Getty Images)

    Nouri Al-Maliki's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal timeline was a coup for the candidate. And even though economic issues have elbowed foreign policy out of the headlines, Obama shouldn't forget it.

    A funny thing happened on the morning of July 19 -- Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq endorsed Barack Obama's plan for a 16-month withdrawal timeline from Iraq in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine. In a stroke, the entire conservative argument on Iraq was demolished. Withdrawal, they'd been telling us, was abject surrender and the abandonment of our Iraqi allies. The conservative counter that this was merely political posturing by Maliki made no sense -- if the reason Maliki was calling for withdrawal was the overwhelming demand for withdrawal on the part of the Iraqi public, that was all the more reason for us to leave. And, of course, looking backward John McCain was (and is) still committed to the idea that, even in retrospect, invading Iraq was a good idea. It looked to me like the election was in the bag. Democrats were going to win the national-security argument, and hence, the election.

    It hasn't quite gone that way. Indeed, Maliki's stunning and repeated endorsement of the progressive position hasn't really penetrated the narrative of the campaign. And while I'd like to blame the media for this, the truth is the Obama campaign hasn't seriously pushed its arguments about Iraq. Nor have they talked about the fact that on Tuesday, five former secretaries of state, including Republicans like Jim Baker and Colin Powell and even McCain adviser Henry Kissinger, endorsed Obama's position on the need for talks with Iran. Indeed, they've stopped pushing national-security messages altogether.

    Now, the campaign has its reasons for this. The economy really is a dominant public concern. But I still find it disappointing that these issues have been left off the table.

    Among other things, it leaves an awful lot of Barack Obama out of the Obama campaign. Obama is a candidate who, rather plainly, could never have secured the Democratic nomination without national-security issues. Indeed, it seems extremely unlikely that he would have had an opening to run against Hillary Clinton in the first place if not for her catastrophic misjudgment in backing the invasion of Iraq in 2002. Beyond that, some of his finest moments in the primary campaign were linked to foreign policy -- from his refusal to back down from his controversial-but-correct stance in favor of high-level talks with Iran to Samantha Power's brilliant denunciation of the "bankrupt conventional wisdom" that's led our country astray.

    And beyond that, it leaves most of what we really know about John McCain. Not only has McCain, by his own admission, made military and national-security issues the primary focus of his career but anyone who's being honest will tell you that nobody has the foggiest clue what domestic policy would actually look like in a McCain administration. We can, to be sure, evaluate his campaign's policy proposals: They mostly stink. But if elected, he'll face expanded Democratic majorities in Congress who are unlikely to go along with these proposals. What happens then is in the realm of pure conjecture. McCain's been all over the map and then back again, ideologically, on domestic issues and seems prone to capricious decision-making. Faced with congressional resistance would he compromise? Dig in his heels and fight? Nobody really knows.

    Foreign policy isn't like that. Congress has, in practice, few tools with which to constrain presidential war-making powers. And McCain is passionate about his ideas on this score and will surely resist any congressional efforts to restrain him quite vigorously. What's more, his ideas on this subject are extremely unsound. Jeffrey Goldberg, who is sympathetic to the McCain approach to national security, observes in a recent profile that "in one area, though, he has been more or less constant: his belief in the power of war to solve otherwise insoluble problems."

    Pocketbook concerns are always dear to the electorate, but it would be nice for voters to give some consideration to the question of whether the right lesson to learn from the Bush years is that we need a president who believes strongly in the power of war to solve problems. Indeed, it seems telling that neither Condoleezza Rice nor Colin Powell can bring themselves to endorse McCain.

    Their indecision reflects the larger state of U.S. foreign policy. Around when Robert Gates was appointed to run the Pentagon, the Bush administration's proclivity for neoconnish hubris was checked in favor of something more pragmatic. But mere pragmatism has been unable to accomplish much in light of the disasters of the previous years. But Bush has been unwilling to take the sort of dramatic steps -- a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, reinvigoration of the multilateral nonproliferation process, a new worldwide treaty on climate change -- that could right the course. As a result, we've been drifting: no new disasters, but no solutions either. In this regard, McCain wouldn't offer four more years of the same thing; he'd offer a return to the kind of approach that Bush himself eventually abandoned as unworkable. Obama, meanwhile, offers the sort of bold new approach that could break the impasse. Or, rather, he did back when he talked about national-security policy.

    Both campaigns have their reasons for downplaying foreign-policy debates, and it's at least defensible for the press to follow the candidates' lead in this regard. Still, it's disturbing to realize that one of the starkest choices ever offered on national-security policy seems likely, barring a sudden and happy end to the financial crisis gripping the country, to go almost entirely undiscussed during the portion of the campaign season when voters are actually paying attention.

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Unfortunately, Obama too is

Unfortunately, Obama too is being disingenuous by at the same time calling for more action in Afghanistan while averring that the huge expenditure for the Iraq misadventure could be better applied to infrastructure repairs and other projects at home. This is pretty confusing, as a ramp up in activity in Afghanistan necessarily means a ramp up of cost there. In any case, the money isn't available for other uses as it is borrowed and doesn't even appear as part of the Federal budget. By far the biggest regional concern, which neither candidate sees fit to address, is the danger of Pakistan's nuclear capability falling into bad hands. More fighting in Afghanistan doesn't appear to do much to solve that problem.


Kashilinus' astute comments

Kashilinus' astute comments remind me that I had a brain freeze about Obama's approach to Afghanistan. Originally, I thought he was referring to going right after Al Quada and Bin Laden, in a way that I rationalized was "surgical." But the more I read, the more I wonder if Afghanistan would be a morass at least as sticky as Iraq. It would be good to know. Which is it? Going for Bin Laden with laser-like efficiency, or taking on another big, long-term war we'll regret? I'm an Obama fan, for sure, but I'm just saying. It would be good to know.


He obviously has many

He obviously has many reasons for running his campaign and his mouth as is...the parlaying of position on any or all of the issues facing the globe as well as America today is not public for those whatever reasons...perhaps we could practice within our own circles the stepping up to our own responsibilities with the same astute attention as Barack Obama is doing as we speak; actually i trust he and his staff are peacefully asleep.


I think there is an uncanny

I think there is an uncanny reason why the right candidates seem to show up exactly at the right time for the US, be it Dukakis in '88, Kerry in '04, and now, Obama in '08. Providence smiles upon a Democracy that is sound; that we elect our own leaders and believe, "All men are created equal". so, fate will have it that we are blessed immensely for it, at the right times. However, our own elements of short-sighted petty greed, stupidity and gullibility makes it all too easy to get sidetracked and derailed over the strangest things. In 1988, it was racism and Willie Horton Ads, not to mention some pundits thinking Dukakis looked like, 'Rocky the Squirrel', in a military cap and goggles (honest to God, imagine losing an election over that?). What kind of world would we have had, by now, had we actually gotten past our misgivings then, and not put the first Bush in! We certainly have had plenty of time to think about it. *(Too long, in fact.) If we don't get it this time, (for whatever reason), I think we simply don't deserve good leaders any more, and the torch may one day pass from our hands to that of another more deserving nation. When it gets to where you demand so much out of a leader that you have to split hairs over why they aren't 'perfect', just do me one favor and look in the mirror. If you don't see the cover of GQ Magazine staring back, there's your answer, and please vote in the candidate who will best help that poor little guy staring back. (Hint: it probably isn't a Republican.)


In reality, Obama's foreign

In reality, Obama's foreign policy won't be that different from McCain's. But it is fun to think that it might be. The success of our withdrawal from Iraq depends very much on people and politics largely beyond our control. Both candidates will be forced to react the situation on then ground in Iraq; neither candidate will be able to implement their "plan." Everything will depend on what happens next. If progress continues in Iraq -- a big IF -- Obama can turn his attention to Afghanistan and Pakistan and reinforce our positions there. In fact, he may be compelled to do so by terrorist attacks originating from there. So he will be at the mercy of events, just as McCain will be. As far as Iran is concerned, there is no pretext for war and the Iranians -- fully aware of how quickly we disposed of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq -- are not likely to provide a causus belli. If Iran does provide a causus belli -- probably the most plausible scenario is Iran prods Hezbollah to rain missiles down on Israel for months at a time, as they did in 2006 -- then either Obama or McCain would respond with military force. But this scenario is not likely. If pushed, the U.S. can eliminate the Iranian regime in 6 weeks. Israel can crush Hezbollah in about the same time. The process would be bloody and costly and thousands would die -- most of them Shiites, of course -- so this is not an attractive option for Iran. It's also not an attractive option for us. Do we really want to try and rule Iran, a country much larger and more populous than Iraq? You'd have to be out of your mind to advocate that option unless there were literally no other choice. There would always be other choices. The only way there will be war with Iran is if the Iranian regime is so irrational that they put confrontation with Israel above their own self-preservation. Regimes almost never do that.