At the Federal Reserve, It's Lonely at the Top

by: Paul Krugman, Krugman & Co. | Op-Ed

At the Federal Reserve, It's Lonely at the Top
(Image: CartoonArts International / The New York Times Syndicate)

While people like me see the Federal Reserve’s recent actions as far too timid, there’s a substantial faction out there that thinks they will very soon bring about the end of Western civilization.

It has been quite interesting to read the commentary that has followed the Fed’s Nov. 3 announcement that it would pump $600 billion into the economy.

Take the Bloomberg article of Nov. 5 featuring investor Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings, who said that quantitative easing will be a “horrible disaster,” and that Fed chairman Ben S. Bernanke simply doesn’t understand economics. “His whole intellectual career has been based on the study of printing money,” Mr. Rogers said. “Give the guy a printing press, he’s going to run it as fast as he can.”

Inflationistas like Mr. Rogers have been wrong about absolutely every aspect of this economic cycle (and they were wrong about the last cycle, and the cycle before that).

But they have their devotees, which means that changes to monetary policy, our only real hope for kick-starting the United States’s economy at this point, must vault a wall of stupidity before there’s any chance they’ll be implemented.

Recently, I have been asked by various people what I would do if I were Mr. Bernanke, or what I would do if I were in charge of the Fed. Now, that is not the same thing: Mr. Bernanke is not a dictator. Evidence suggests that he would be substantially more aggressive in both action and rhetoric  if he weren’t constrained by the need to get his colleagues to agree with him. I don’t know what I would do in his place.

What I would do if I were in charge of the Fed is the same thing I suggested that Japanese officials do in 1998: announce a fairly high inflation target over an extended period and commit to meeting that target. As I have said before, when you’re up against the zero lower bound, it doesn’t matter how much money you print unless you credibly promise higher inflation.

What does this mean? Let’s say the Fed commits to achieving 5 percent annual inflation over the next five years — or, perhaps better, to hitting a price level 28 percent higher at the end of 2015 than today’s level. Crucially, this target cannot be called off if the economy recovers. Why? Because the point is to change expectations, and that means locking in the price rise.

The sad truth is, of course, that the chances of our achieving anything like this are no better than those for implementing an adequate fiscal stimulus — at least for now.

At best, the limited quantitative easing that was just announced will only provide mild mitigation of the country’s current problems. Perhaps when the reality that the United States is caught in a liquidity trap sinks in — as the fact that we’re doing worse than Japan starts to finally penetrate our arrogance (amazing how long that’s taking) — we will eventually get there.

But it is not likely to happen soon.

Backstory: Running Low On Options

In an unusual move, the United States Federal Reserve committed on Nov. 3 to buying $600 billion in Treasury securities by June, hoping that demand for the 30-year bonds will push up their value and depress long-term interest rates.

Lower long-term rates could encourage homeowners to refinance mortgages and corporations to release cash from their balance sheets, injecting much-needed liquidity into the capital markets.

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For the last two years, the Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates near zero in an attempt to stimulate growth in the United States, to little avail. The economy remains stalled, and unemployment has hovered around 9.6 percent for months.

But beyond adjusting short-term interest rates, the Fed has few options for encouraging economic growth, especially without accompanying fiscal stimulus measures.

One option is the monetary intervention the Fed announcedNov. 3 — what economists call quantitative easing.

The most cited example of a government’s use of this tactic is Japan’s injection of money into its economy between 2001 and 2006. Japan’s economic situation has not shown much improvement; it seems to be stuck in the sort of economic quagmire that American officials are trying to avoid.

The Fed’s foray into a new round of quantitative easing has not been welcomed by critics, who predict that the action will lead to dangerous inflation in the United States.

Joining them are officials from nations in Asia and Europe who have expressed worry that their markets will be flooded with foreign capital as investors seek higher returns, and that their currency values will rise, making their exports less competitive against American-made products.

“What the U.S. accuses China of doing, the U.S.A. is doing by different means,” said Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble.

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Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. He was awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008.

Mr Krugman is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes, including "The Return of Depression Economics" (2008) and "The Conscience of a Liberal" (2007).

Copyright 2010 The New York Times Company.

All republished content that appears on Truthout has been obtained by permission or license.





     

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Comments

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Far be it from me to argue

Far be it from me to argue with someone who received a Nobel Prize in economics, but I still have questions about this quantitative easing. Money earned from labor--cleaning the floor at McDonald's, for example--seems so much more difficult to get than money gained from quantitative easing. Workers sell their sweat and discomfort for practically nothing while banks can get unlimited amounts of money for their own purposes. Something seems wrong here. How about "quantitative easing" in the form of generous checks from the IRS, more for the poor and less for the rich? Wouldn't that create more jobs than the bank welfare program we have been conducting?



Economists are all quacks.

Economists are all quacks. That statement includes Krugman. They all study a topic that came about as the result of human commerce. IT IS NOT THE FOUNDATION of it but rather the observance. They are trying to steer the ship by moving the ocean currents. They problem with this is that their "plans" ALWAYS miss the target problem: people don't have money to spent. So yeah, Krugman's plan is to make things cost more in order to convince people that don't have the money in the first place to go out and spend. How the hell is that supposed to work? At the minimum, the fed recognizes that Americans are now third worlders with no disposable income and accept the fact that the only way they can get Americans to spend is to "cheaply" loan them the money to do so. That won't work either since it's nothing more than a ponzi scheme but hey, at least the fantasy of a solution is better than the reality of no solution as long as "economists" are calling the shots.



It would drosera, but that

It would drosera, but that wouldn't be the point of all this would it?



what does the above mean?

what does the above mean? what is drosera?



ignore the drosera comment;

ignore the drosera comment; i realize it's someone's name (carnivorous plant!--yikes!)



“What the U.S. accuses

“What the U.S. accuses China of doing, the U.S.A. is doing by different means,” said Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble.

...and that is the point, the Germans would do it too if they were in the US position, only now they have to take the opposing side. That does not mean that they know that US has to do it.

However I agree that generous IRS checks to all are much more attractive. Just throw $1 trillion into the lower 98% of low wage earners with most to the lower earners. That would get consumption going.



Krugman's point seems to be

Krugman's point seems to be lost to some here. He strongly advocated for direct stimulus through jobs programs. He called Obama's stimulus program very weak. There is a fairly long time lag before you see the benefits.

What he is commenting on here is the Fed's current "supply side" solution. He is saying that the plan is way too little to do any good. He does not comment on what would work. I get the sense that he is not fond of a supply side solution.



Republicans, their corporate

Republicans, their corporate masters, and their economist allies are not stupid. No, they WANT government to fail so it can be supplanted by feudalism. They are, in other words, committing treason.



Still talking 'liquidity'?

Still talking 'liquidity'? Seems to me it's more clearly an issue of solvency in the financial sector, which is why they've been mopping up every dollar they can get to get their balance sheets into shape without loaning any out into the economy.



Any recommendation to

Any recommendation to promote any inflation without some guaranteed effect on employment and compensation rates is and attack on the working class and any others without the time, knowledge, and asset level necessary to gain value from the investment market. Simple savings are devastated by inflation. The effect is particularly acute when coupled with unemployment.

A program to allow or encourage inflation cannot be considered to have absolute merit unless the people who have to live in the resulting world have been guaranteed the ability to survive. It's bad enough as it is.



Actually, a little inflation

Actually, a little inflation would be a god-send to the economy. Forget the mild erosion of your savings. Think about the rise in your wages relative to your debts. Across the whole of society, inflation makes paying off debts easier and will get us out of the slump faster because the slump is caused by too much private debt. If you pay 6% interest and there is 6% inflation in your wages then you pay effectively no interest. That's why banks and other creditors hate inflation so much.



6% inflation of your wages

6% inflation of your wages is offset by 6% inflation of prices of real goods, plus whatever markup businesses need to offset that 6% increase, which is really more like 10% - 60%.



barryT: There's no way that

barryT: There's no way that people's incomes would increase relative to your debts. For your assumption to work, the rise in wages would have to be higher relative to all the non discretionary spending in order for the end result to have a positive effect on a person's debts. Not gonna happen. I'd say the last 30 years of stagnant wages is proof enough of that. Inflation in this current climate would only erode the average person's already weak buying power thanks to stagnant wages which, BTW is the elephant in the room that no economist quack has the nerve to address.



We are living in interesting

We are living in interesting times.

Greed is good, or so says Wall Street and the Corporatocracy. So they looted my retirement account and knocked the bottom out the real estate market with questionable lending practices making my home a bad investment. Then they laid off a bunch of us old farts because our health insurance cost too much and it cut into their obscene profits. Yes, we are living in very interesting times.

I think some very dispossessed Indians wished this upon us when we took their land over a hundred years ago. Or perhaps it was the slaves who were beaten or killed when they refused to work without pay and wanted to be free. Those two actions made America what it is today.

Paybacks are a bitch.



Anon 22:57: Paybacks are a

Anon 22:57: Paybacks are a bitch for whom? It wasn't the little guy that had slaves nor was it the little guy who screwed the Native Americans out of their country. No sir. It was the same interests who are screwing Americans (and many others in the world) today. Unfortunately, the ones deserving payback the most are the last to get it and usually not until the country they've looted has completely crumbled and even then, the little guy gets the worst of it.



BTW Anon 22:57: The best

BTW Anon 22:57: The best quote I heard in relation to the concept of "paybacks are a bitch," was one made by a Native American. He was part of a tribe who (IIRC) had just purchased a Hard Rock franchise. As part of the PR he said something along the lines of: We are going to buy America back one hamburger at a time. I thin that was the best quote I ever heard. I hope they pull it off.



The tide seems to be rising,

The tide seems to be rising, as is the caliber of the participants here. It's nice to hear so many, obviously well informed folks, that are not "swallowing the party line" points of our Nobel Prize winning shill, Master Krugman. Share your clear perspectives far and wide. Kudos



Jim rogers been wrong in

Jim rogers been wrong in everything?

Didn't bother to continue to read..... Krugman and those idiotic central bankers simply have their head's up their asses for far too long.

Love to see Krugman put the money where his mouth is and see if he ends up bankrupt within 3 years or not.



"We are living in

"We are living in interesting times.

Greed is good, or so says Wall Street and the Corporatocracy. So they looted my retirement account and knocked the bottom out the real estate market with questionable lending practices making my home a bad investment. Then they laid off a bunch of us old farts because our health insurance cost too much and it cut into their obscene profits. Yes, we are living in very interesting times.

I think some very dispossessed Indians wished this upon us when we took their land over a hundred years ago. Or perhaps it was the slaves who were beaten or killed when they refused to work without pay and wanted to be free. Those two actions made America what it is today.

Paybacks are a bitch."

Best comment I've seen in a long time. I'll be sending this one as viral as I can.

Krugman misses the point entirely, as does every other economist and politician. The sole goal of the government should be to ensure, if not directly provide, full employment and a rising standard of living for every citizen. I don't see how handing another penny, let alone $600b to Wall St. for more of the same failed "trickle down" b.s. is going to help or change anything. People should be rioting in the streets for another WPA. Why they aren't is a tribute to the corporate propaganda wing that is the "liberal" media of today.



An earlier comment about

An earlier comment about throwing $1 trillion to the lower 98% of low wage earners (whether it was sarcasm or not) isn't such a bad idea if there were strings tied to how it was spent, (which should have been the case with the banks as well) and a generous time frame for people to pay it back without interest(perhaps lent out in some kind of revolving loan ...that renews once the initial amount is paid off on time. Money going to the people could have been used to pay off some of their high interest debt and in that way the banks would have gotten a lot of it anyway and the whole country would be better off and hopefully have learned a lesson. For people without debt it could have been tied to reducing energy consumption (through home improvements or hybrid cars perhaps) But the problem with that idea is it was never about helping the people, only about keeping big business rolling along in spite of the fact that has included rolling over the average citizen.



Apparently, many of those

Apparently, many of those commenting upon Prof. Krugman's evaluation of Bernanke's performance understand that if they ruled the world, they would handle things differently. Insightful attitudes all, yet Krugman plainly explained that Bernanke was not even ruler of the Fed, let alone the world, but simply its chairman.

This is, after all, America, and we have just handed control of the House of Representatives over to a crowd that expresses great sympathy to the concept of mob rule. If any of us were Bernanke (and commission), the best we could do would be to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of T-bills, because that is all we have power to do. As Krugman indicates, the Fed has already yanked the short-term interest rate to near-zero, so this remainder of tools available to the Fed to try to bolster some recovery are all they have. Anything beyond this monetary move by the Fed would require legislation. Anybody here expecting brilliant fiscal innovations from Speaker Boehner during the incoming Congress?

Krugman has already called for stronger government interventions into the American economy. When a string of keyboard warriors, trailing in tow, demand the same, yet denounce the Prof. for not doing likewise with his last taken breath, I gather that being an economist/pundit means not being listened to.