Don't Buy Currency Devaluation? It's Been Done Before

by: Paul Krugman, Krugman & Co. | Op-Ed

Don't Buy Currency Devaluation? It's Been Done Before
(Image: CartoonArts International / The New York Times Syndicate)

Hard-money types tend to take a sort of "Lives of the Saints" approach to history.

They reverently reference certain iconic examples of hyperinflation (Weimar Germany! Zimbabwe!), while remaining utterly ignorant of all examples to the contrary.

Take Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the ranking Republican on the House of Representatives budget committee. It's a good bet that he doesn't actually know much about monetary history.

In a Nov. 21 story from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about his strong opposition to the Federal Reserve's plan to pump another $600 billion into the economy, Mr. Ryan posed an interesting question: "Name me a nation in history that has prospered by devaluing its currency."

Well, let's look at an analysis first pointed out by Menzie Chinn, an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, when he took up Mr. Ryan's challenge.

In March 2009, Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in The Guardian: "In the 1930s, it is true, with one country after another depreciating its currency, no one ended up gaining competitiveness relative to anyone else. And no country succeeded in exporting its way out of the Depression, since there was no one to sell additional exports to.

"But this was not what mattered," Eichengreen wrote. "What mattered was that one country after another moved to loosen monetary policy because it no longer had to worry about defending the exchange rate. And this monetary stimulus, felt worldwide, was probably the single most important factor initiating and sustaining economic recovery."

My question is this: Why go back to the 1930s for examples?

— How about Britain, which saw a strong recovery from its economic doldrums after it devalued the pound against the mark in 1992?

— And Sweden, which recovered from its deep banking crisis in the early 1990s with an export boom, driven by a devalued kronor?

— And South Korea, which roared back from its 1997-1998 economic troubles with a strong export boom, driven by a depreciated won?

— What about Argentina, which also roared back from its 2002 crisis with an export boom, driven by a depreciated peso?

And the list continues.

The truth is that every financial recovery since World War II that I know of was driven by currency depreciation.

In fact, this is the biggest reason for pessimism now: due to the global scope of this crisis, the usual exit is blocked.

Now, I'm sure that naysayers, especially the gold bugs, will somehow come up with new ways to explain away all these historical events.

At that point, however, I think we are just not learning from history.

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BACKSTORY: Bernanke Gets Political

According to longstanding tradition, the United States Federal Reserve has mostly been kept isolated from the tense sphere of partisan politics. But following the November midterm elections, the bank's role in the U.S. economy has often come under attack from Republicans and Tea Party followers. Ben S. Bernanke, Fed chairman, has increasingly found himself in the unusual position of having to defend himself and the actions taken by the reserve bank to stimulate the economy and job growth.

Leading the critical response in the United States is Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the ranking Republican on the House budget committee. He will likely become the committee's chairman in January.

Not only has Mr. Ryan said that the Fed's next monetary policy move — adding $600 billion to the U.S. economy by buying Treasury bonds through June — will drastically heighten inflation at home, he has also pointed out that a devalued dollar will weaken the United States's standing with other nations like China and Germany, whose economies rely heavily on exports. Officials representing those nations have joined Mr. Ryan in expressing their disapproval of the impending Fed action.

"There is nothing more insidious that a government can do to its people than to debase its currency," Mr. Ryan said in an article published on Nov. 21 in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Mr. Bernanke insists that these measures are necessary to create jobs in the United States and boost disappointingly slow economic growth.

With interest rates near zero, the $600 billion quantitative easing plan is one of the few monetary policy tools the Fed has left. To get this message across, the Fed chairman has taken an unusually active role — including meeting with members of the Senate banking committee and traveling to Germany in late November in order to cultivate allegiances with officials there.

© 2010 The New York Times Company

Truthout has licensed this content. It may not be reproduced by any other source and is not covered by our Creative Commons license.

Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. He was awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008.

Mr Krugman is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes, including "The Return of Depression Economics" (2008) and "The Conscience of a Liberal" (2007).
Copyright 2010 The New York Times.

All republished content that appears on Truthout has been obtained by permission or license.





     

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If--Since--there is no

If--Since--there is no increase inREAL production here--not services--there will be continued erosion--devaluation is the best thing possible b/c 1] it is a leading take-control move, as opposed to criticizing China or waitn or whoever?, 2] matches the economic reality so 3] delivers a solid build-from the bottom healthy structure. Actually genuine market-believers shoul be greatly welcoming of this redress.



WhileRyen is clue-less or

WhileRyen is clue-less or lying about what he knows and doesn't know Krugman's grasp of Modern Monetery Theory is incomplete and diverges from the understandings of William Black and James Galbraith both of who agree withWarren Mosler and have recommended his new book which does a good job of of explaining MMT Modern Monetery Theory to non economic types. Check it out it isn't long and is available in PDF form at
http://moslereconomics.com/2009/12/10/7-deadly-innocent-frauds/



anyone opposing the fed's

anyone opposing the fed's proposed policy of "easing" is a toolshed.

We as a nation should be targeting inflation, and pursuing it as a matter of policy.

It helps everyone. Everyone's debt is eased by inflation. Couple it with laws requiring wages to track with inflation to prevent "pay cut by wage freeze" and it's a very sure way to accelerate a recovery.

The only people who stand to lose are the banks. They do, after all, make the loans. At the same time, given the choice of defaults on an epic scale or less valuable loans, I believe they would choose the latter.



Its interesting to look at

Its interesting to look at the 'successful' devaluations referred to by Mr. Krugman in the long term or is there one? Most of these success stories need to repeat the performance again and again..... and each time the working class takes a hit and more of the middle class drops out of that as cost push inflation savages their businesses and professions. Since most of their customers are poorer too it becomes ever more difficult to pass it on. Thank God for the fed and its foreign equivalents who can ride to the rescue and engineer new speculative booms that morph into real ones riding on created money and exponentially growing debt which can be gainfully used to concentrate even more wealth in the hands of a narrowing class who have learned to 'pass the parcel' before it implodes.



Inflation? Inflation is a

Inflation? Inflation is a problem? If inflation is threatening us now, why wasn't there a Social Security COLA? There wasn't a COLA because the cost of living had not increased, which means no inflation. Inflation does not threaten us, not now.



When we face competition for

When we face competition for jobs from countries whose citizens are as well educated (or better educated) as Americans, are willing to work cheaper than Americans, and work harder than Americans, how do we expect to get those jobs back.

We either take an explicit wage cut down to their level, or we do it implicitly by letting our currency slowly devalue.

I suppose the other choice is to let the unemployed stay unemployed. Who is safe from being out competed from abroad? Not even CEOs and bankers are immune.