Economists Tell the Masses: "It Could Have Been Worse"

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Op-Ed

Economists Tell the Masses: "It Could Have Been Worse"
Magazine covers show former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan. (Photo: ptufts / flickr)

It is amazing that angry mobs have not risen up and chased all the economists out of the country. While the greed of the Wall Street gang provided the fuel for the bubble, the economists played an essential role as enablers. This was most directly true for economists in policymaking positions, like Alan Greenspan at the Fed.

It was Greenspan's job to stop the housing bubble. A competent and honest Fed chair would have recognized the bubble by 2002 and taken whatever steps were necessary to rein it in. And we should be 100 percent clear, in spite of all the song and dance about how the financial reform bill will prevent another bailout, the Fed absolutely had all the tools needed to stop this disaster. They just lacked either the competence or the integrity, or both.

But the economists in policymaking positions are just the beginning. There are thousands of macroeconomists across the country, in government, academia and private industry who track the economy as a full-time job. It is actually a well-paid job, with many drawing six-figure salaries and big name types getting close to $1 million a year.

Given the high pay for this profession, it was reasonable to expect that they would be able to see something like the $8 trillion housing bubble that eventually wrecked the economy when it collapsed. But you can count on your fingers the number of economists who raised warnings about the housing bubble. The rest either did not see it, or didn't think it worth mentioning.

Remarkably, no economists seem to have lost their jobs for this failing. Unlike dishwashers and custodians, economists are not held accountable for the quality of their work.

Now, the economists are back telling us that we should be thankful that Congress and the Fed enacted the TARP and the other programs that saved Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and the rest from bankruptcy. A new study by Princeton University Professor Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, examined the impact of the TARP and the related Fed and FDIC bailout programs. The study found that without the bailout, GDP would have declined by another 6.5 percent and the economy would have lost another 8.5 million jobs. In other words, things might be bad now, but if we didn't shovel trillions in loans and loan guarantees to Goldman Sachs and the rest of the Wall Street gang, they would be even worse.

Before we start thanking Goldman for taking our money, it is worth taking a closer look at the study. The big story here is the counterfactual. What does the study assume the Fed and Treasury would have done if we had not passed the TARP and the Fed had not come through with its vast array of emergency loan and loan guarantee programs?

The answer is that the study assumes that they would have done nothing. In other words, the question asked by the study is "what would the world look like if the federal government had done absolutely nothing to counter the economic and financial downturn resulting from collapse of the housing bubble?"

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This counterfactual seems more than a bit unrealistic. Suppose we had let the market work its magic and put Goldman, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley into bankruptcy. Suppose that once these firms were in receivership and their bank units were in the hands of the FDIC, the Fed flooded the system with liquidity. How would this situation compare with the situation where trillions of taxpayer dollars were put at the discretion of Goldman and the rest through TARP and the Fed's special facilities?

The Blinder-Zandi study tells us absolutely nothing about this scenario. In other words, Blinder and Zandi have constructed an absurdly unrealistic counterfactual and told us that the TARP was much better than this absurd scenario. This is like saying that people who don't eat chicken will starve to death. Under the counterfactual that people who don't chicken don't eat anything else either, they certainly will starve to death.

But that is not a serious analysis of the benefits of eating chicken, and Blinder and Zandi have not given us a serious analysis of the benefits of the TARP. This "it could have been worse" line should be flushed down the toilet. The reality is that greed and incompetence created an entirely unnecessary disaster. Tens of millions of people are still suffering from its consequences. And the Wall Street boys and the economists who are responsible for the disaster are all doing just fine.

People should be really angry about this and a silly study that might be used to tell them otherwise should just make them angrier.

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Dean Baker is a macroeconomist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He previously worked as a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor at Bucknell University. He is a regular Truthout columnist and a member of Truthout's Board of Advisers.


Comments

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Dean Baker for Federal

Dean Baker for Federal Reserve Chairman.

Then he could give a speech each week where he points out the incompetence and corruption of the economics professionals and the reporting on economic policy.



Thank you for this! This is

Thank you for this! This is absolutely one of the most truthful accounts I have yet to have heard about the farce of our financial masters today. We are witnessing the greatest fraud to have ever been perpetrated against the population and the time is now to re-enact the same retribution we were required to undertake against the robber barrons in the first gilded age, but this time we need to kill these dark forces permanently!

Allowing private moneyed elitists to control our economies must end once and for all. Prison sentences, not praise should be leveled against them. Their intention is to enslave us all and concentrate their power until they are beyond our collective reach. That time is close and this is happening world-wide. Everywhere private banking is consolidating power and wrecking havoc on ordinary citizens.

But it is we who still have the real power. We are awakening to the truth. The truth that our government from Obama to the SCOTUS to the congress are in their service should be obvious to anyone who's eyes are open. We need to move quickly to break up these sinister power centers and reclaim our collective liberty and future.

Mr. Backer, you are spot on, the time is now for anger, anger and action. Our founders warned us of the dangers inherent in the concentration of financial interests in private hands and we choose to ignore their warning at our peril. Do not let their media minions lul us into a stupor about how they are the only ones who can save us. WAKE UP AMERICA, WAKE UP! OUR COUNTRY HAS BEEN INVADED AND OUR DUTY IS TO PROTECT HER!



Let them Eat SOW, (Sold Out

Let them Eat SOW, (Sold Out Whores). Even Bush-Hog Obummer couldn't put enough lipstick on them and himself to disguise these PIGS! Angry ENOUGH?!



This article, by an

This article, by an economist I admire, one of the few who predicted the bust of the housing bubble, is very welcome. When TARP was being planned, my hope was that Wall St. firms would be allowed to founder. Whatever happened, Main St. was going to take a hit. If Wall St. hadn't been bailed out, Main St. might have taken a bigger hit, but probably not a much bigger hit. And if bankruptcy had been allowed to happen, at least some of the hucksterism of Wall St. would have gone down the tubes. Should have let them drown in their own bad debt! Now they're back, defending the profits they made through chicanery and fraud, and ready to bilk us once again!



Wall Street depends on the

Wall Street depends on the FED, and the Fed, Wall Street, and top government financial types play musical chairs, I had hoped that the Democrats would be different, but they have more Wall Streeters than the Republicans had. Only Ron Paul was brave enough to point this out.



"Under the counterfactual

"Under the counterfactual that people who don't chicken don't eat anything else either, they certainly will starve to death."

now you know why they get 7 figures.

to deceive the public and justify the fraudulent system.



Dean, on the money as usual.

Dean, on the money as usual. And I've been angry for a long time. Around the advent of a general acceptance of the bogus theory called supply side economics. Which I have said for years was the tool used for the greatest transfer of wealth out of the hands of the middle and lower classes into the hands of the elite, in the history of nations. The crash of 08 was simply the icing on the cake. Only problem is how to direct your anger to an effective outcome when you are protesting your, as the late great George Carlin put it, your OWNERS. Especially when half the country is trying to take down the government, the only buffer and possible protector we have from total serfdom to the multinationals and banksters. Maybe this
http://www.truth-out.org/too-big-not-to-organize61871



Keep saying it, Dean Baker.

Keep saying it, Dean Baker. We need you. Keep the pressure on, keep speaking the truth. Thank you.



Economy is not a science,

Economy is not a science, it’s a phony. Economists are charlatans. They cannot explain the economic crisis, they ignore how long it is going to last and have no idea how to accelerate the economy. They ignore how to create jobs. They went back several decades to Roosevelt’s policies. But, today is another reality, a different social and economic situation. They have become useless. They predicted full jobs, better living standards, economic growth and richness and more fantasies for the whole world, developed and underdeveloped countries if they privatized all the assets of the state, adopted free market, abolished all regulations, opened all the markets and reduced taxes for the riches and big corporations, downsize the state and more myths. The opposite is exactly what happened. The countries which followed their hallucinatory recipe are bankrupted or are all borrowing billions to survive (short term solution, long term headache). Their jobless rates are higher, they did not generate any job, their poverty level is higher, and corruption is standard practice. The poor and the media class are heavily taxed, while the rich and banks and corporations pay relatively nothing. Some of these countries are being characterized are real disasters.



Who cares about the

Who cares about the economists; carpet bomb Wall Street!