Figuring Out What a Dollar Is Worth

by: Paul Krugman, Krugman & Co. | Op-Ed

Figuring Out What a Dollar Is Worth
(Image: CartoonArts International / The New York Times Syndicate)

There’s a lot to be said about the recent attack by conservatives on the Federal Reserve, though none of it is good.

Representative Ron Paul of Texas will head the committee that oversees the Fed when Republicans take over the House this month. That can’t be good; this is the same Mr. Paul who has in the past supported dismantling the entire Federal Reserve system.

What has really been striking, though, is conservatives’ constant focus on the evils of increasing the money supply. You hear it all the time from Republicans: the Fed is printing money! Danger! In the many comments sent to me by readers I have come across similar assertions that the true measure of inflation isn’t prices, but what happens to the money supply.

My reply: first, for those who care about, you know, being able to buy things (you can’t eat money, after all), it’s the prices of goods that actually matter. For the past three decades there has been remarkably little correspondence between the standard monetary aggregates, which measure the cumulative value of the money supply, and the inflation rate.

But here’s an even more basic question: What is money, anyway? It’s not a new question, but I think it has become more pressing in recent years. Surely money is not merely pieces of green paper bearing portraits of dead presidents. For one thing, a lot of that green paper is inert — transported outside the United States, to be kept in the hoards of drug dealers and such.

For another, checking accounts are a clear substitute, since no green papers are ever exchanged when you deposit your paycheck in the bank, for example.

In the 1960s, the economists Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz proposed broader money aggregates: the M1 category, which added checking accounts to the aggregates (which until then only dealt with the pieces of green paper in circulation), and M2, which added a broader range of deposits. And circa 1960 you could argue that those aggregates were good enough.

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But now we have a large shadow banking system in the United States — hedge funds, investment banks and so forth.

And with credit cards, electronic money and more all serving as mediums of exchange, it’s not clear that any single number deserves to be called “the” money supply.

So if a person is determined to view economic affairs through a sort of “paleo-monetarist” lens, he is going to have a hard time in the modern world, where the definition of money is increasingly vague. 

Backstory: At the Fed, New Signs of Progress

When the Federal Reserve announced in November 2010 that it would buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds through June 2011 in an attempt to stimulate the economy and reduce unemployment in the United States, some congressional Republicans decried the quantitative easing program.

But the Fed’s strategy of injecting money into the economy seems to be working, as it has improved economic growth expectations for the United States, quieting naysayers who argued that merely “printing money” was not an effective solution. The spread between yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries has narrowed by more than a percentage point. This is a signal from the market that the United States’ economy is on track to recover, since the spread between these two long-term bonds narrows when investor confidence increases in the riskier 30-year bonds. The narrower spread also makes it unlikely that the Fed will have to resort to further quantitative easing in the near future.

But even if the quantitative easing program succeeds in restarting the sluggish economy, the Fed may face new challenges. Inflation is likely to rise as the economy revives, possibly undermining the bond market. The dollar, too, may weaken against other currencies if prices in the United States start to reflect inflation.

The greatest challenge may be political in nature, however. Republicans, some very critical of the Fed, will take control of the House of Representatives in January. And Republican Representative Ron Paul, who has in the past suggested that the Fed be abolished altogether, will head the committee that oversees it.

© 2010 The New York Times Company

Truthout has licensed this content. It may not be reproduced by any other source and is not covered by our Creative Commons license.

Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. He was awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008.

Mr Krugman is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes, including "The Return of Depression Economics" (2008) and "The Conscience of a Liberal" (2007).

Copyright 2010 The New York Times.

All republished content that appears on Truthout has been obtained by permission or license.

All republished content that appears on Truthout has been obtained by permission or license.





     

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Well, way to "cover your

Well, way to "cover your ass" at the end there Krugman. You know deep down that what the FED does is essentially kick the can down the road instead of allowing the economie's true nature to come forth. Ron Paul wants to confront the issue head on, unlike you and anyone else who supports the unconstitutional Federal Reserve and it's puppeteering of the money supply. The longer the U.S. puts this issue off, the worse it will be to deal with in subsequent generations. (if we even make it to the next one).



I read "The Creature From

I read "The Creature From Jekyll Island" and was persuaded that The Fed is a rip off. Does anyone know what Krugman's position is vis-a-vis what was said in that book?



This article seemed to break

This article seemed to break off suddenly after paragraph 13, with a rewrite of paragraph 2. Was Paul Krugman suddenly interrupted? Was he edited? Very odd.



I am not an economist. But,

I am not an economist. But, please explain to me really what all this gobbledygook talk has to do with jobs for real people and food for the mouths of the hungry? I just don't believe that our economy is improving for anyone other than ultra wealthy.



mr krugman please tell us

mr krugman
please tell us why you think the fed stopped reporting the amount of M3 in the world....



You better wake up and

You better wake up and finally kick the illegal FED and recover your sovereignty and be the USA that was prior to the takeover by the Bankster and Rockefellers in North America.
Hope Ron Paul is able to do such a mighty job.
Gerard from Spain



Paul Krugman is to economics

Paul Krugman is to economics what a witchdoctor is to medicine...

The man is flat out wrong at everything he thinks and says... Unbelievable that he still finds ways to earn income.



The last thing the elites

The last thing the elites and corporations that run our economy and our government want is for the false left/right paradigm to shatter by liberals and conservatives coming together to dismantle the Federal Reserve and the fraudulent debt system it creates when it in turn creates money out of thin air. After reading this article, I don't feel guilty about not donating money to Truthout. I think I smell a mole in Krugman.



Milt Friedman and his

Milt Friedman and his disciples are silly, dangerous people. His theories need to be taken on by thinking people in academia and destroyed.

As for the Fed and its games, what do Republicans - and Democrats, of course - have to offer in place of the screwed-up monetary system we have now?

Aside from all that A-list gamesmanship, how does any of this contribute to employment here?

It's all about scratching the itch.



I agree that some stimulus

I agree that some stimulus can be a good thing, however the way it is being applied is, IMO, a disaster. If the government/Fed used the money to create jobs and repair/create infrastructure, at least the average American would be getting something out of it. But all we are getting is watered-down dollars and ever increasing prices. And increased bonuses for the Banksters. If Mr. Krugman doesn't think there has been much inflation in the last 30 years he must live in a separate dimension. The costs of everything basic to living, (housing, food, and energy) has risen steadily in the last 30 years.

I don't see how at this point people can argue in favor of unbacked fiat currency, not to mention fractional reserve banking.

This makes an interesting read: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-why-world-financially-doomed-four-charts



Mr. Krugman, You continue to

Mr. Krugman,

You continue to harshly criticize Dr. Paul (yes he's a doctor so you should address him as such) and the Austrian School of Economics, yet you shy from debates every time you are challenged by an Austrian economist. If you're fraudulent Keynesian theory is so powerful why not accept a debate? Are you afraid to be embarrassed by those who speak the truth? Are you afraid people will stop reading your column?

Whatever it is you are making a big mistake. There are plenty of people out there who aren't sure what side of the debate they fall on. But, seeing you dodge debate after debate surely makes them lean to the Austrian side. If you want to win over the economic "independents" then debate an Austrian economist and win...oh wait debates are about truth...never mind.



PK, oh PK.... The Fed is our

PK, oh PK....
The Fed is our central bank which we gave to the robber barons for their personal fiefdom in 1913
All the Eus and japan and China have central banks...and all except China report to the Central Bank for central banks in Basel (hence, the gnomes of Basel) called the BIS or bank of international settlements, i.e., the Rothschild family Bank of Old Boss.
Or Hell.
Here is where the Rip-ugli-cants decided to turn their stars upside down on their phony Party Bunting to better express the face of the goat.
When the Fed opens it's books to say, the Nation or Mother Jones for auditing i'll change my mind, but right now PK, you have lost me forever. i think they have bought your soul.



"What is money,

"What is money, anyway?"

Judging from your answer, you meant your question to ask, "What kinds of things are equivalent to money?"

If would have been helpful if you had tried to address another interpretation of that question: "What is the nature of money?"

The answer is, "Money is essentially a promise."
A promise to give the holder some desired good. The good is understood to ultimately come either from the person who gave the money/promise, or from others.

When you deposit money into a savings account, and it gets loaned out by the bank, the bank gives you a promise (in the form of a bank statement) to return your promise.

This creates a promise to give a promise to give a good.

Further shuttling of money from one account to another produces an ever higher Tower of cards: Promises to give promises to give promises...etc.

These promises may eventually mushroom far beyond the amount of goods available to meet those promises.

When that happens, those promises/dollars lose credibility. The result is deflation and an economic Depression.



Because of this BS, I will

Because of this BS, I will no longer follow your site. Americans... there is nothing to worry about. Your government has everything under control. The Federal Reserve is good. BULL SHIT. Wake up!



Ron Paul Chairing the sub

Ron Paul Chairing the sub committee will be the best thing that ever happened to our economic system in the last 100 years. The Fed needs to go!



I am STUMPED...I just do not

I am STUMPED...I just do not know who is right. How about getting professor Black who was on Moyers to talk about the Fed. I want someone with NO ax to grind and no political agenda. Just the facts because anything with a math aura scares me to death. I cannot argue economics and I SHOULD be able to...HELP!



Silver was at $5 for many

Silver was at $5 for many many years, now it is about $30, all in about 10 years. This, although it benefits people like me, hurt this country because people are not really storing wealth in any of the normal baking or savings and load accounts. Ron Paul and John Kennedy were both correct. We don't need to be paying interest on money that is generated out of thin air. Kennedy saw this, started printing Treasury notes, and they shot him. I guess you may be planning on neutralizing Ron Paul soon, but I would not want to be you if you do and we find out your group of elites, did it.



End the Fed. I also want to

End the Fed.

I also want to hear what Maddow has to say.



Krugman is a pale Uncle Tom

Krugman is a pale Uncle Tom doing the bidding of corrupt banking elite who control the not-too-federal Federal Reserve.

Truthout has been compromised and infiltrated by the banks. They print what they are paid to print.

truthout is now a propaganda rag.



God is it ever embarrassing

God is it ever embarrassing to discover that I read the same site as such a gaggle of drooling wingnut morons as post here do. I doubt you idiots have a combined positive-number IQ.



All forms of debt money

All forms of debt money banking must die, along with all corporations.



You ask, "what is

You ask, "what is money"

Answer - google marplemoney.MP4



Why do they hate the Fed. I

Why do they hate the Fed. I still don't get it. I thought it made our banking system more secure?



Respectfully. John Maynard

Respectfully.

John Maynard Keynes stated "The way to destroy 'Capitalism' is to debauch the currency". Well, the Fed has accomplished this edict quite well. Also, Margaret Thatcher stated, "The problem with Socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money". Well, we have no money left that is "worth" anything. Bring out the wheelbarrow...the money alchemists of money are running out of options.



Same song so many times,

Same song so many times, what a gig to keep getting paid for! Why would someone in such a vaunted position put down an honest man to pump up a different kind? Was there once an ability to interact, before the needle got stuck in the vinyl groove? I can only hope it will evenually become evident why Paul Krugman has continued to defend policies that produce the opposite of what is promised and that harm ordinary people in favor of cronies. We may get more of a chance to find out more about the stuffed cronies, with Ron Paul possibly able to find more out about exactly where so much money went.



Should we factor in how much

Should we factor in how much the value of a bill decreases when all the cocaine is scraped off of it?



Krugman understands

Krugman understands economics about as well as Obama understands constitutional law. Who listens to this clown?



David, You are absolutely

David,

You are absolutely correct. Too bad the US Treasury STILL does not have a definitive definition of "money". Paper money, like a man's word, with no backing, is worthless. (The full faith and credit of the US is meaningless....we do not pay back our principle debt, only the interest accrued). Perpetual debt...slavery anyone? Abe Lincoln is rolling in his grave...



Any stimulus will work, the

Any stimulus will work, the PROBLEM is the money$ continually leave the USA b/c there is inusfficient PRODUCTION in this country to retain and recycle it--we are exsanguinating--continual loss of blood.We need to quit selectively obsessing about 'constitution'-al--the document has allowed to grow with the time--by the approval of 'wethepeople' as constitutional procedures--I donot think any of these 'constitutionalists' are not having dentistry, going by horse and buggy or having families of 13 children??



I guess everyone else has

I guess everyone else has done a good enough job calling you out on your article, so I won't bother.

Ron Paul for President 2012



Who let the Washington Post

Who let the Washington Post crowd in?



Paul I cant believe I just

Paul
I cant believe I just read qbout 48 hd hominem attacks on you. All without any substance.
You know, maybe you should stop caring about the middle class if these responses are all you get for your troubles. They dont deserve you.
I am deeply embarrassed by the shallow discourse of our electorate



" it’s not clear that any

" it’s not clear that any single number deserves to be called “the” money supply"

Mr Krugman, While I agree with the overall thrust of your point, I think this is a rather semantic piece of sophistry.

You and I both know the term "money supply" In the context of monetary policy takes credit markets into account.

This is one of the reasons printing money will NOT result in inflation right now.

The credit markets hardened faster than rush limbaugh's arteries after the crash as the massive de-leveraging process went into full swing.

Trillions upon trillions of what people considered to be "money" not one month previous became worthless, the "money supply" utterly imploded. Abusing the fiat system is one way to counter the even greater threat of deflation to a heavily indebted economy.



Paul can't stop caring about

Paul can't stop caring about the middle class, but this crap about credit and fractional reserve lending, the fed, et. al. has much more sinister roots than Ron Paul.

The money multiplier effect is an important and powerful force. It was present even in the days when coins were made of real gold and silver, and the economy could not grow without it.

I went on a trace of this rumor when I first started to hear it in 2003, and tracked it back to a neo-nazi propaganda site. This sophistry against the most fundamental concept of banking and the credit markets which arise from it stems from nothing more than rank anti-semitism.



""The problem with Socialism

""The problem with Socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples money"

This can also be said about capitalism.

profits depend upon people having wages to spend on the stuff that gets made.

Just like the ocean currents, the money has to flow down before it can come back up. Block that flow, and end up with recessions. The wealthy can't really comprehend this, they want to maximize their rewards relative to the rest of the population, and in their zealotry they choke themselves.. much like blocking both major veins in your legs will eventually kill you.

Government intervention when necessary is what prevents this manner of market failure. It has been prevented now for some 30 years to devastating effect on our nation.



y r u gay??????!!!!!!

y r u gay??????!!!!!!



Gary North has argued for

Gary North has argued for ages that the main problem is the Fed's MONOPOLY on money creation. Why not open up the market a bit and let people use gold, silver, cash or whatever else sellers will accept as payment for goods and services? Can we handle that level of economic freedom? Will the system collapse? Is that a good thing? I'm not even recommending this, just wondering: Will it work?



"Will it work?" In a word:

"Will it work?"

In a word: No.

We had this type of system for a century at the dawn of our nation's history.

various banks and municipalities minted their own primisory notes, and because of this, everyone demanded a different form of currency, and most currency was completely worthless once you exceeded a distance of about 50 miles from your hometown.

I know I certainly don't want to pull off the freeway with an empty tank only to have the attendant demand some strange form of payment.



What bothers me about the

What bothers me about the Fed is that it is made up of private bankers who serve their own interests. As a former Dem and newly minted :-} Independent I'm going to look carefully at what Ron Paul has to say. I'm impressed by the number of responders who have spoken out against the Fed.
"But now we have a large shadow banking system in the United States — hedge funds, investment banks and so forth," quoting you Mr. K. This is the statement that hit home for me, and frankly all I can see is collusion b/w the Fed and the shadow bankers.

If I had the wherewithal I'd buy gold, but I don't and more's the pity for me.

Finally, I'd like Truthout to provide an opinion counter to your views. Until they do I won't give them another dime.



I can't believe Mr. Krugman

I can't believe Mr. Krugman doesn't seem to know about the origins of the Federal Reserve and how unconstitutional it is. It puts power over the whole country in the hands of a few men. As Mayer Rothschild once said, "Give me control over the money of a country and I care not who makes the laws." The FIRST thing we have to do to get our country back from the banks and corporations (who are the only ones who own stock in the Fed, by the way) is to dismantle the Fed. The constitution, Article 1, Section 8 gives CONGRESS the power to "coin money" and so far, they have never exercised that power or duty.



I am confused.

I am confused.



Holy crap Peter Joseph and

Holy crap Peter Joseph and that crazy old fart Jacque Fresco are right!

please check out www.thevenusproject.com/ and watch Peter's documentary "Zeitgeist: Addendum" and see what you think.



Folks here are talking about

Folks here are talking about the Fed as if it's something evil, or unconstitutional, or bad. No institution is perfect, but the alternative to having a central bank is what we had prior to the Fed: cycle after cycle of prosperity followed by bank panics; cynical rich (and unregulated) bank owners taking "theirs" out before taking their banks under. And the people who are telling us how bad the Fed is are trying to sound populist when, in fact, they are making the rich man's argument.

The genius of the right is their strange ability to get ordinary folk to speak up (and vote) against their own interests. In order for our 250-year-old, self-governing, Capitalist experiment to work, it continues to require informed citizens who actually work to protect their own interests. Sadly, if this comment blog is any indication, that isn't happening.



The Good Book says..."Thou

The Good Book says..."Thou shalt not steal". Inflation, through legislation, is theft( a hidden tax on the common man that is not accounted). Mr. Krugman, evidently, considers this as an honorable action. God is God. Krugman is but a man. So be it....He will reap his own reward....theft. Ironically, Jesus died on the Cross...with a ...Thief....beside Him....there is always hope....



The problem is the money

The problem is the money itself.

The FED's debt backed money and the onerous interest it carries is a fundamental structural problem that must be changed.

This is only possible with the elimination of the FED system. The national bank has been abolished in the past. It happened during Andrew Jackson's administration. If Obama wasn't so beholden to the bankers and their "interest", he would do what Lincoln did and issue greenbacks and conduct his own quantitative easing without incurring all of the debt in the process.

So... Ron Paul is actually looking better and better every day.



First, anyone who is heavily

First, anyone who is heavily invested in the fiat system, the stock market, bonds, etc, as I'm sure Mr. Krugman is, does NOT want the House of Cards to be wind-tested by Ron Paul's gust of financial reality, because they may be sittin on their arses, no longer rich men. Krugman and his cronies, the Beltway boys, the bankers, Wall Street, all want this Monopoly game to continue uninterrupted. After all, the corruption is based on baseless currency with swindlers printing the cash, swindlers valuing the cash, and swindlers manipulating the VALUE of YOUR life and labor through the value of the cash in your pocket, in your bank account, in your savings, everything. Krugman is just trying to secure his own wealth by attempting to slime the only guy who is willing to change the game of Monopoly into the game of LIFE.. real life, real value, no middleman..like the Fed.. Speaking of Monopoly, we need competing currencies too. No more of this corruption..



"yet you shy from debates

"yet you shy from debates every time you are challenged by an Austrian economist. If you're fraudulent Keynesian theory is so powerful why not accept a debate?"

The austrian school is to economics what intelligent design is to biology. Wackjobs in this school of economics publish books which assert the new deal was deleterious to the economy, and extended the depression until world war II.

The Austrian school uses revisionist history and does not provide testable hypotheses.

As for their assertions about the great depression, There's a positively decadent city in Nevada which was born strictly because of the new deal, and continues to prosper to this day from that tiny seed of federal intervention.



I can't believe they publish

I can't believe they publish articles of a former Enron advisor on a website called "truth-out". This guy is a complete fraud who professes Bubblenomics.
Take a look at these two quotes by Paul Krugman:

"To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." -2002

"To be honest, a new bubble now would help us out a lot even if we paid for it later. This is really a good time for a bubble." -2009



"Surely money is not merely

"Surely money is not merely pieces of green paper bearing portraits of dead presidents." --Mr. Krugman

Certainly not! Consider the $100 bill, for instance. Ol' Benjie was never elected President.



Why would this author, or

Why would this author, or any citizen, for that matter, object to oversight of the Fed? And who would be hurt by its repeal?

The Federal Reserve Bank is not an agency of the United States Government, any more than Federal Express is because of its name.

Like Federal Express, the Federal Reserve is a private corporation. It's stock is owned by the large megabanks who got the vast majority of the bailout money. Like any corporate CEO, his fiduciary duty is to his stockholders, not the public. Any idiot can see the mischief of giving control over monetary policy and bank oversight to a company owned by banks. Why can't Mr. Krugman?



"Like Federal Express, the

"Like Federal Express, the Federal Reserve is a private corporation."

Bullsh*t.

the federal reserve is a non-profit founded by the US and run by officials appointed by the current administration at their sufferance.

The fed is non-profit, any revenues greater than its expenses are sent back to the US treasury.

It's purpose is to stabilize and insure the deposits of the american people, and part of that process is the promotion of economic growth.

Now please, take some prozac and calm down.



"Any idiot can see the

"Any idiot can see the mischief of giving control over monetary policy and bank oversight to a company owned by banks. Why can't Mr. Krugman?"

Because most of the oversight you're talking about is done by the SEC and not the fed?

the fed sets basic guidelines like reserve ratios and serves as a lender of last resort, that's all.

who was the idiot again?



That idiot would be Mr.

That idiot would be Mr. Anonymous of the previous two posts.

Brent is correct.

The FED is a private corporation. It is NOT a non profit. It is not part of the Federal Government.

The enabling legislation of 1913 made it illegal to disclose who the owners are.

Now why would that be??????

They are the lender of last resort true. Ever ready to loan more money to a government with insatiable empire driven desires just as long as the "money" they invent is paid back with interest.



"The FED is a private

"The FED is a private corporation. It is NOT a non profit."

from wiki-pedia:

"The Federal Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the system. The stock may not be sold or traded or pledged as security for a loan; dividends are, by law, limited to 6 percent per year."

point 1 - any profits exceeding their expenses go to the US treasury

point 2 - "stock" is a misnomer here, at least in terms of the common perception as a traded and valued secuirty.

additionally, from wiki-pedia

"The only means in which the Federal Reserve System can create money is by offering banking institutions additional credit on the reserves held by the Federal Reserve System to those financial institutions in need of additional assistance. These “Loans” must be approved by the US Treasury, therefore leaving the monetary control under Government rulings. The Federal Reserve System operates under very strict guidelines set forth by the US Treasury, and is subjected to routine audits from government officials operating from the offices of the Treasury."

in short, you have been led astray and need to check your facts.



whats a dollar worth? that's

whats a dollar worth? that's an easy one ,answer, how fast are the presses running ,or another way is to gauge it by oil prices ,the fed prints up a batch of money ,the reaction of oil producers is to raise prices , they're not stupid we are



Jimmy James got it right

Jimmy James got it right earlier. Kennedy by passed the federal reserve (a collection of private, for profit bankers - cf, "Web of Debt" by Ellen Brown, which is very highly recommended by Thom Hartmann) and he got assassinated. Same with others who got in the way of banker's ability/permission to create money. Ellen Brown documents many other examples; some being Caesar, Jesus, Lincoln, McKinley, Jackson (Andrew - they tried but failed on three attempts). Unfortunately for us Obama is educated enough to recognize the dangers of crossing paths with the world's bankers, so they get to rape us then get bailed out and still get their bonuses, i.e., our tax money. Go Ron Paul, but please don't read "Web of Debt", you're approaching quick sand.



The crazies in this response

The crazies in this response column, just like reaganites, prove how woefully inadequate our economics curriculum is in the U.S.



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