Finally, a Stand Against China's Destructive Policies

by: Paul Krugman, Krugman & Co. | Op-Ed

Finally, a Stand Against China's Destructive Policies
(Photo: David Wong / Flickr)

As regular readers know, I am growing increasingly impatient with Very Serious People, who offer wise reasons not to do anything about the United States’s devastating unemployment rate.

Very Serious People have now begun to weigh in on the Levin bill — named for Sander M. Levin, a Democrat in the House of Representatives — which would authorize countervailing duties on Chinese goods in response to the country’s refusal to revalue its currency. Inevitably, these people are arguing that we should do nothing about the outrageous, destructive currency manipulation that is the basis of China’s trade advantage, and is costing Americans jobs.

A Sept. 23 editorial in the usually sensible Financial Times is a case in point: it sounds very reasonable, unless you have actually looked at and thought about the subject.

“Slapping tariffs on Chinese imports is not an effective response. It is needlessly confrontational, given that China has been willing to address U.S. concerns, if at snail’s pace, through diplomacy,” according to the editors. “It has allowed the renminbi to appreciate by almost one percentage point since Barack Obama’s top economic adviser Lawrence Summers visited Beijing two weeks ago, around half of the total increase since June.”

Seriously? They think diplomacy has been working?

The small adjustments China has made, and then reversed, before events like Group of 20 gatherings and just ahead of the vote on the Levin bill (which the House passed by a strong majority) do not suggest that diplomacy is working. China is merely making empty gestures designed to head off American action.

The Financial Times editorial continues: “Import duties would also barely dent China’s surpluses, which are largely the product of its low wages and high savings.”

Argh. If China has an advantage due to low wages, then one way to raise those wages in dollar terms is to raise the value of the renminbi. And if wages matter, why not tariffs? The suggestion that all we need is a mature discussion of global rebalancing strikes me as reasonable — if you have been living in a cave the past three or four years. The United States has been reasoning, and reasoning, and reasoning, and yet nothing changes.

Clearly, the Chinese government does not want to act — not out of national interest, but because of the political influence of Chinese export industries. China won’t change its behavior unless it faces an additional incentive — like the prospect of countervailing duties.

The Levin bill is a step toward a more balanced world, not away from it. 

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Backstory: A Hard-Line Approach

The House of Representatives passed a bill on Sept. 29 that aims to give President Barack Obama more authority to impose tariffs on almost all imported Chinese goods coming into the country — a clear warning that American officials have, after much debate, reached a turning point regarding China’s cheap exports and its alleged attempts to gain a competitive trade advantage through the manipulation of its currency exchange rate.

With the unemployment rate in the United States at 9.6 percent and the manufacturing sector severely crippled, many American officials are convinced that a stronger renminbi is necessary for economic recovery, even if it sparks a global trade war — prompting nations to weaken the value of their own currencies to better compete.

According to the Associated Press, American manufacturers believe China’s currency is undervalued by as much as 40 percent against the dollar, making Chinese products cheaper and more competitive in the United States. On the other end, American products are much more expensive in China, which decreases demand for them.

China has been defiant, arguing that the large public debts and loose monetary policies of central banks in the West are causing economic woes.

The move the United States is contemplating would mean that it would be taking an aggressive stance against currency manipulation. The bill now needs the approval of the Senate — which has its own proposal pending and will probably not debate the issue until after the midterm elections in November.

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Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. He was awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008.

Mr Krugman is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes, including "The Return of Depression Economics" (2008) and "The Conscience of a Liberal" (2007).

Copyright 2010 The New York Times Company.

All republished content that appears on Truthout has been obtained by permission or license.





     

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"With the unemployment rate

"With the unemployment rate in the United States at 9.6 percent and the manufacturing sector severely crippled"... Manufacturing sector? What manufacturing sector? Do you mean the two or three companies left that WalMart hasn't intimidated into doing a NAFTA bunk, or are you talking about one of those facilities that does final assembly (3 workers, 45 seconds each) from parts made (15 people, 10 hours of labor) overseas? Haven't you heard, we're a service economy... sorry that was a decade ago... we're a post service, manufacturing free economy...



The question is, what power

The question is, what power do we have to compel China to comply? They have plenty of markets besides the U.S., their economy is flourishing while ours declines, and they are holding a large chunk of our national debt.

So what penalty, exactly, can we impose if China refuses to revalue its currency? Why should they care what we say?

(I have enormous respect for Mr. Krugman, who knows a million times more than I do about economics. So if he would explain why getting tough with China would work, I could be persuaded that he is right. But so far, in his columns on this subject, he hasn't addressed that question.)



Most of our trading partners

Most of our trading partners have a value-added tax which acts as a tariff on imports, and is rebated on exports. Such a tax could help equalize our trade deficit, and would assure that American multi-nationals who ship jobs overseas pay some tax on their products, making off-shoring much less profitable. The tax could be structured with a generous rebate for low and middle-income taxpayers, so it would not add to the tax burden on ordinary Americans.



even in the midst of a

even in the midst of a global recession, the U.S. exported an estimated $1.377 trillion worth of goods last year, according to the authoritative CIA World Factbook. Nearly half of the exports were capital goods: aircraft, computers, electric power machinery, office machines, telecommunications equipment, and the like. Industrial supplies, such as organic chemicals, accounted for another nearly 27 percent. And consumer goods, including pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products accounted for 15 percent and 9 percent, respectively.--Harold Sirkin, BUSINESS WEEK, April 2009



A trade war? All Krugman

A trade war? All Krugman offers is a trade war? We're going to end up a third world country if we continue listening to this fool.



What about the wars and

What about the wars and foreign military bases? What about an industrial policy to rebuild our industries? Why not let the Chinese use the surplus to buy US assets? Perhaps we should confront ourselves before we start on China.



I would like to know how you

I would like to know how you define a more balance world?? You don't understand the situation in China, and you represent American when you wrote this article. Every country are facing their own economics problem now a day. But don't use China as a punching bag during the Mid- Election. Levin Bill will not balance the world economics instead it will make it worse. Export Hi-Technology maybe a way reducing unemployment rate.
Stay neutral when you write Dr.



Someone recently observed

Someone recently observed that Princeton professor and Nobel Prize winner, Paul Krugman - he's never introduced without these identifying handles, you see - predicted all seven of the recessions that occurred between 2003 and 2007. That notwithstanding, could it be that one of those Very Serious People with whom Krugman is impatient is University Of Missouri economics professor and all around nice guy, Michael Hudson? Here's an educated appraisal of the Chinese currency question for those that might be interested:

http://michael-hudson.com/2010/09/america%E2%80%99s-china-bashing-a-compendium-of-junk-economics/



Production Parity Here is

Production Parity

Here is the best solution:
Require all imported goods to be manufactured under the same US standards and laws. This would include pollution laws, worker safety OSHA laws, labor laws, health insurance, disability insurance, retirement funds. Foreign workers must also be allowed to unionize. Then US manufactures will be able to compete on a level playing field.

This is where the US unions lost the war. If they would have demanded production embargoes instead of agreeing to ineffective trade war tariffs, they would not have had their memberships decimated by the loss of our manufacturing base.

Major outsourcing of industrial and manufacturing jobs started in the 70s in the steel industry, and today the plutocracy is still stealing our jobs, in almost every industry.

The key to reversing our current economic depression is, organized labor MUST go global.



Auston you are not being

Auston you are not being very neutral by saying, "Export Hi-Technology maybe a way reducing unemployment rate."

How bizarre to suggest that by manufacturing Hi-tech products in other countries we could reduce unemployment substantially within the US.

I think you want to find ways to enrich just a few lucky Americans. I think we should instead, "promote the general welfare," by building manufacturing plants here in the US.

If you also want to outsource the techology too, that's fine with me. But any imported goods utilizing that technology should be built to US standards and laws. The days are numbered for whole foreign industries not paying to clean up their pollution and treating workers like disposable cogs in the machine.



As you know Professor, I

As you know Professor, I have been writing for several years about heavily taxing outsourcing companies. My suggestion was to charge union scale + 15% for every job outsourced and also against independent contractors for each employee. Moreover plastics and wood products from China and Mexico give off highly toxic fumes and outgasses.
I agree with building new factories and bringing to life old abandoned ones. Good article, sir.



U.S. standards? You're

U.S. standards? You're kidding, right? Corrupt agency collusion allows junk in U.S. products and often subsidizes it. The colluding corporations do not pay for harm they cause. They use the government-said-I-could excuse. We have a deficiency of Erin Brockaviches. Economists could discuss the Monsanto/Xe/Bill Gates axis of influence and address the imperial behaviors of the U.S. government. The appointment of Monsanto chums to food-safety posts within the government and the horrific inability to get accuracy about military-industrial behaviors need more play. I do not see this coming from privileged economists who are popular with the current regimes.



My respect for Paul Krugman

My respect for Paul Krugman is diminishing by the day. Although he is a
feisty jovial fellow who is quite like-able, the depth of his analysis is
like a shallow pond after a long, hot summer.
His diatribe against those bad Chinese is just a cover up for the real
crimes being committed by the predominantly American finance industry who
are flooding foreign-exchange markets with effectively free money borrowed
from the fed, forcing foreign currencies to appreciate which, for export
oriented economies like China, can have profoundly negative effects on
their foreign trade, which in turn can have devastating effects on their
society.
Krugman is smoking something I would like to have if he believes, even if
only for a second, that the keynsian-nightmare of "savings" is
responsible for the current trade deficit, as if this factor is all that
it would take to turn America back into a manufacturing power which could
compete on equal footing with China.
The American finance industry has no interest in investing in domestic
manufacturing capacity. They know all to well that they can make far more
money by screwing the smaller export-oriented economies in the nations of
the south, by lending effectively free(for them) money, thus burdening
these societies with ever more debt obligations, further impoverishing
them.
So many of our brilliant economists act as if our economic problems were
simply the result of a lack of investment capital, ie. credit. Give me a
friggin break. The real economy, where value is actually produced has been
utterly dwarfed by the FIRE industry. Never in human history has so much
credit been available, as in the last period of time leading up to our
grand financial crisis-the availability of all that credit did NOTHING for
creating domestic jobs, or improving the quality of life for the majority
of Americans. The exact opposite occurred-millions of people are faced
with foreclosure and/or bankruptcy, while those things which function as
gates to quality of life (like higher education and quality health care)
become unobtainable for an ever growing percentage of Americans and
millions more become damned to eternal debt-slavery.

Maybe it is time for China to quit underwriting our insane military
conquests by providing such cheap access to rare-earth metals.
It angers me to no end to think that so many thousands of Chinese workers
are just as dependent as their American counterparts on our damned
military industrial complex. What an evil juggernaut our global economy
has created.
But what angers me even more is having to listen to supposedly brilliant
(ie. Nobel Prize winning) economists like Krugman who fail time and again
to really call out what is going on (speak to power), and who jump on the
populist bandwagon cheering anti-foreigner sentiment(blame the Chinese!)
while celebrating some kind of pseudo patriotism of those who have
systematically screwed people here in the states and around the world.

Michael Hudson provides far more insight into these things than Krugman
ever could:
america's-china-bashing-a-compendium-of-junk-economics

at michael-hudson.com

lol, looks like Lavrenti Beria pointed to the same article......



Unfortunately, this economic

Unfortunately, this economic (if you call neoliberal witchcraft economics), social, and military saber-rattling is going to get much worse.



Have all of you forgotten

Have all of you forgotten that the United States has borrowed hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars from China to wage our ridiculous war in Afghanistan? The trade war is nothing compared to our being in hock to China in terms of dollars wasted in Afghanistan.



Krug's Articles Don't Allow

Krug's Articles Don't Allow Real Critical Commentary - I posted hours ago - immediate spam blocker (I'm convinced it's 'turned up' for Krug's articles) I send it in for manual review, and unlike for other articles, it gets stuck in limbo - until the article is cold.



Can you do simple

Can you do simple math,

Don't think your problems posting had anything to do with the author of the post(Krugman). According to the site admins the comment posting code is old(about to be replaced) and has some bugs(like virtually all software). I had the same problem posting here on this krugman article-in my case my message was blocked as spam due to having a url in my post-once i deleted it, my post went through.....



No URL in post. Not a

No URL in post. Not a particularly large number of posts, either - and now, many more hours have passed. I've had assurances that there is no censorship, but there is a high correlation of spam blocking and this writer. A post that it long enough to get blocked due to length does not make it through the flesh and blood reader phase for a long, long time. It's difficult not to notice that.



"Outrageous Currency

"Outrageous Currency Manipulation"? - You've got to be kidding, Krug - There is no currency in the world that is more manipulated than our own US Dollar.  We are the country that broke Bretton Woods in '71 with Nixon destroying the gold standard.  We are the ones who took our first large step out of trading honest money (gold) when FDR declared it illegal for US citizens to transact in gold or to own gold bullion - this was done, ILLEGALLY, so as to manipulate the currency - something that is much harder to do when the people have the gold in their hand and they are allowed to choose which currency they will use.  How about re-examining our 'Legal Tender' laws, which force people to use the green toilet paper in their wallets which continually evaporates in value under the direction of idiots who want 'even bigger quantitative easing'.  Take note all - Krug got his 'Nobel Prize' from the Central Bank of Sweden "in honor of Alfred Nobel" - and not from the Alfred Nobel Foundation. Setting workers free and putting a bridle on the banks would entail allowing people to choose and to trade gold and silver or whatever other currencies if they wish, without the Federal government taxing them because they were 'bartering with collectibles' or 'making windfall profits' when people are just protecting themselves from confiscation through inflation at the hands of worthless central bankers - GET OUT OF OUR BUSINESS - GO SELL USED CARS - or maybe make license plates...
 



Sorry, GOP opened China , do

Sorry, GOP opened China , do you think they want to close it down....really..and where do you buy your Polo and Nike and Wal-mart crap. China is betting on GOP win and if they win, we all lose...how is that for voting for dummies. The chamber of commerce is going to burn your voting card for telling lies about the CEOS of america.



Naturally, Krugman is in the

Naturally, Krugman is in the China-bashing camp. They have the weak currency he is so jealous of. Krugman would like nothing better than to see our currency devalued faster and further in order to prove his stimulus theory - on which he has hung his career - can work.

Only problem is that it punishes savers and creditors - people who behaved prudently - and rewards debtors - people who behaved recklessly. Debasing currency is never a means to building wealth - just of saving the necks of politicians in power, whose key lackey he is.



The problem (economic woes)

The problem (economic woes) has less to do with China and more to do with the American dollar which is fiat- it means nothing- it isn't backed by anything. Financial collapse is imminent.



OK, all you Know-It-All,

OK, all you Know-It-All, snooty economics-types: Krugman writes about international finance and ALL you can do is bitch about a spam-filter? If you have nothing cogent to say, I'm GLAD the filter pulls you out and tosses you. If all you can do is bitch, put it on your facebook where people don't have lives anyway and might CARE what you think.