Is Defaulting on the National Debt on the Table?
Tuesday 07 September 2010
by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Op-Ed

(Image: Jared Rodriguez / t r u t h o u t; Adapted: The Adventures of Kristin & Adam, Daniel*1977)
In an interview last week, Rep. Chris Van Hoellen, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, persistently refused to take cuts to Social Security off the table. He said that President Obama's deficit commission would make its report after the election and that the Democratic leadership could not say before seeing it that a plan that includes cuts to Social Security was unacceptable.
If there is some principle at stake here, it is not one that the vast majority of the America people share. Social Security is a hugely popular and successful program. The vast majority of retirees depend on Social Security for the bulk of their income.
This dependence is almost certain to grow in the next two decades due to the country's incompetent economic management. The huge cohort of baby boomers is approaching retirement with almost nothing other than their Social Security to support them. This is the result of the fact that Greenspan-Bernanke crew, as well the Clinton-Bush gang, thought that asset bubbles were fun.
The collapse of the housing bubble has eliminated much of the wealth that baby boomers were able to accumulate during their working lifetime. With their retirement rapidly approaching and a continuing failure of economic policy to produce normal levels of employment, baby boomers will have little opportunity to make up for their lost wealth.
So, why can't the Democratic Party leadership say that cuts to Social Security are off the table? What part of this is so hard for Van Hoellen to understand?
If Van Hoellen is saying that everything is on the table, then he is almost certainly not telling the truth. It is highly unlikely that the deficit commission would consider a partial default on the national debt as an option. Furthermore, it is certain that if the commission did produce a set of recommendations that included a partial default on the national debt that it would almost certainly be rejected out of hand by the both the Democratic leadership in Congress and the Obama administration.
Of course, there is no reason for the US government to default on its debt. The country is having no difficulty whatsoever issuing borrowing at the moment, with investors willing to make long-term loans at interest rates below 3.0 percent.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve Board can freely buy up more debt if investors did become more reluctant to hold government bonds at some point in the future. In ordinary times, this could create a problem with inflation, however, with the vast amounts of idle capacity and huge reservoir of unemployed workers, inflation is clearly not going to be a problem in the foreseeable future.
Given the ease with which the country can borrow, and the relatively minor burden posed by interest payments, there is no reason for the United States to default on its debt. But, of course, there is also no reason for it to cut Social Security payments, which would amount to a defacto default on its debt to the Social Security trust fund. Near retirees have already paid for their Social Security with their Social Security taxes. These taxes were used to buy the US government bonds held by the trust fund. If the government substantially reduces scheduled benefits, this is effectively defaulting on these bonds.
If Van Hoellen feels comfortable ruling out a default on the government debt more generally, then he should have no problem ruling out cuts to Social Security. Of course, if we do see cuts to Social Security on the table, then the public should insist that default on the debt is also on the table.
This is nut-ball economics, but if the Democrats in Congress insist on practicing it, then voters should insist that it is not just working people who get hurt. The Wall Street boy should know that they are risk, too.
The reality is that we can get back to full employment quickly, but we lack the political will to do it. The reality is that the budget deficit is not a problem in the short-term because of the vast amount of unemployment - the deficit is supporting the economy and preventing unemployment from rising higher.
And, the budget deficit is not a problem in the long-term - the problem is a broken US health care system that threatens to send costs through the roof in both the private and public sector. If we fix our health care system, then we have no deficit problem.
If Social Security is on the table it is because people in the Obama administration and the Democratic Party leadership want to cut Social Security. It really is very simple.

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Comments
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Boy am I glad I moved to
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 13:24 — ER444 (not verified)Boy am I glad I moved to Germany, and I ain't comin' back !!!
And from neighboring
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 14:17 — Vic Anderson (not verified)And from neighboring Bastogne, just Say, "NUTS"!
cut social security,better
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 14:42 — Anonymous (not verified)cut social security,better build bigger prisons
Take the cap off
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 17:02 — Bob (not verified)Take the cap off contributions; problem solved. no one hurt. If the Waltons can affort 100M for the building to house their art; they can afford 15% FICA. Tell McDonalds & their ilk to nutritionize their fare & force the media to stop taking ads for poison, mental or physical. Mandate the media (they are clever, to get the people on a healthy lifestyle) voila, Medicare solved. Tax the snot out of business that exports jobs that can be done at home, voila, unemployment problem problem solved. If business likes the totalitarian government of China so much, a little of that to work in the favour of OUR country should not be hard to take. Prosecute white collar crime; S & L crisis, over 1000 felony indictments; this time 0 except for Bernie who robbed rich people, dare I say rich Jewish people like him--that was a no no but screw anyone else especially the hard working taxpayers, that was OK---not,with me!
If the Fed "issues" our
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 17:26 — Edgar Valderrama (not verified)If the Fed "issues" our money and charges interest and we pay it back with the same money, doesn't that make them a loan shark to whom we will always owe more (and more) than we can pay back? Can someone explain?
The Democratic Congressional
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 17:38 — Anonymous (not verified)The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee --Trash It for treason to the Party and treason to the people. I'll bet even the NO-Republicans would ot accept van Hollen in their ranks.
Have they really thought
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 17:59 — nazani14 (not verified)Have they really thought this through? If people now start to save for all their own medical care, all retirement expenses, and maybe enough money put away to get them through a full year of unemployment, that pretty much means the end of the consumer economy.
Republicans need to demonstrate pre-New Deal family values by having their aging parents move in with them and paying all their medical expenses.
De-commission off-shore
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 18:29 — JadeQueen (not verified)De-commission off-shore bases and end long supply lines to reduce oil use and its left-overs that go into products with dire side effects. Then build healthy soils and strong, diverse local food sheds to engage our people in constructive work. We could better address entitlements by reducing culturally induced weaknesses, sometimes called excess disabilities. Some people do not need social security, by their own definition. Give them options to decline or to designate pay-down of debt. Blue-ribbon insiders opine in high places about their impressions of people. It matters how ordinary people feel, from their own points of view.
Social Security is not just
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 23:28 — T Day (not verified)Social Security is not just about retirement benefits. Social Security fraud is a fairly significant portion of the SS budget. Young people go on lifetime SS for curable or non-disabling problems like depression, ADD, boredom, and laziness. SS was expanded to cover all sorts of non-retirement, non-contributor recipients. That could, and should, be rectified.
Obviously the contribution cap should be revisited. Most of Bob's solutions are viable and fair. Reinstating the inheritance taxes and closing loopholes and using those funds to restore the SS fund would also be significant. This is only a "problem" because the Democlicans and Republicrats represent the richest !% and are from that unproductive demographic.
Another trash articles that
Wed, 09/08/2010 - 18:03 — Anonymous (not verified)Another trash articles that is hard to make sense of.
According to Stephen
Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:40 — Anonymous (not verified)According to Stephen Lendman, If investment income were included and the social security cap of $109K were removed, benefits could be doubled and no one would have to work another hour or until 70.
http://www.truth-out.org/article/stephen-lendman-the-war-working-americans-parts-i-and-ii
Well well, another win for
Sat, 09/11/2010 - 16:18 — Anonymous (not verified)Well well, another win for the Bush/Cheney GOP. When George tried to trash SS , he got trashed. Now they have the jackasses doing it for them, go baby go. There is only one party left or is that right. what a mess the people of this nation are in. Welcome to slave labor farm! You will never have to worry about collecting anything...you will die on the job...who said the GOP don't have a plan?
T Day - you're lying.
Mon, 09/13/2010 - 14:55 — Frances in California (not verified)T Day - you're lying. You're just lying. Fortunately, people who regularly read TruthOut are on to liars like you. Go away.