Our Acute Case of Fiscal Madness
Wednesday 29 September 2010
by: Paul Krugman, Krugman & Co. | Op-Ed

(Image: Lance Page / t r u t h o u t; Adapted: Jose Luis Lopez, Chris Gierszewski, azrasta)
Future historians will marvel at the austerity madness that gripped policy elites in the spring of 2010.
In a flurry of blind panic and irrational exuberance, organizations from the European Central Bank to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development suddenly abandoned everything we had learned, at a bitter cost, about economics during recessions and decided that fiscal austerity was the way to go while the world was in the depths of a slump — indeed, many claimed that spending cuts would actually be expansionary.
Not only was there an illogical push for austerity, but there also emerged a widespread demand for central banks to raise interest rates in the face of falling inflation and high unemployment.
This madness was exemplified by the O.E.C.D.’s economic outlook report in May, which supported these ideas. But the O.E.C.D. has suddenly changed its tune. “In the short term, the weakness can be dealt with [through] the prolongation of some of the monetary accommodation in some countries,” the O.E.C.D.’s secretary general, Angel Gurria, told Reuters on Sept. 17.
This is as close as such organizations ever get to admitting that they were wrong.
And speaking of the rewards of austerity, I think it’s worth checking to see whether there have been any.
Regular readers may remember that I’ve written here about bond yields in Ireland and Spain.
Both had big housing bubbles and busts, but their post-bust politics have been very different, with Ireland quickly adopting austerity, and Spain much slower and grudging. And for a while many financial journalists asserted that the markets were rewarding Ireland’s virtuousness. But it was never true: Ireland’s economy didn’t perform better than malingering Spain’s.

And now, look at the bond data on this page— the market had a tough time this month after Barclay’s Capital released a dour economic outlook for Ireland, which had some commentators speculating about the country’s needing an I.M.F. bailout — speculation it has refuted.
In the last month, Ireland’s risk premium has exploded.
And Spain’s? Not so much.
Of course, Ireland’s banks were arguably second only to Iceland’s in their irresponsibility, and the Irish government’s blanket guarantee of bank liabilities has exposed it to huge losses.
But bear in mind that when Ireland seemed, briefly, to have regained the trust of the markets, this was touted as proof that austerity would be rewarded.
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So the Irish are back to waiting for their reward for suffering.
What a strange trip it has been, though, sadly, it is not yet over.
--------------------
Backstory: The Damages of Speculation
A gloomy report from Barclay’s Capital released in the middle of September sent Ireland’s bond market reeling, prompting the European Central Bank to pump millions of euros into the severely damaged market.
The report had sparked speculation that Ireland’s economic troubles might require a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, which spooked investors, who are already leery of Irish banks. Ten-year bond yields in Ireland quickly hit a record high on Sept. 17. This was indeed troubling news, since the yield increases as demand decreases and, thus, risk increases.
While the I.M.F. was quick to say that it did not expect Ireland to need a bailout, the damage had been done. Financial-services firms Barclays and Credit Suisse have said that the Irish government is doing all it can to address Ireland’s stalled economy — even if the government’s options are limited. And given recent economic forecasts for the global economy, these options are unlikely to improve anytime soon: Revising an earlier opinion, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in early September that world’s seven largest economies will likely grow by only 1.5 percent this year, not the 1.75 percent predicted earlier this year. With these economies underperforming, the peripheral European economies may suffer even more.
There has been one exception, however: Spain. The Spanish bond market has stabilized following a spate of bank reforms. On Sept. 16, Spain sold 4 billion euros’ worth of government bonds, and yields have dropped sharply since May — a clear signal that investor confidence there is strong.
Nevertheless, restoring market confidence remains a goal for the Irish. On Sept. 20, Ireland’s central bank governor, Patrick Honohan, indicated that Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s government needs to cut the coming budget more if Ireland wants to gain international confidence in its economy, according to the Financial Times.
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Paul Krugman joined The New York Times in 1999 as a columnist on the Op-Ed page and continues as a professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University. He was awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008.
Mr Krugman is the author or editor of 20 books and more than 200 papers in professional journals and edited volumes, including "The Return of Depression Economics" (2008) and "The Conscience of a Liberal" (2007).
Copyright 2010 The New York Times Company.
All republished content that appears on Truthout has been obtained by permission or license.



Comments
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BULLIED! And (this Is) HOW!!
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 16:32 — Vic Anderson (not verified)BULLIED! And (this Is) HOW!!
The discussion of interest
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:20 — Marc Shapiro (not verified)The discussion of interest rates has continued to avoid any reference to the money that is withdrawn from any respective monitory system when interest rates are artificially low. I define artificially low when the rate of return is below the rate of real inflation. Real inflation includes all the parameters that are intentionally excluded from the "market basket" like the cost of government, taxes, fees, fuel, and fuel. In the us, for example, over a trillion dollars in bank deposits being used for loans/collateral by banks at almost no cost. for every 1% increase in interest, $10 billion would circulate in the economy with it related multiplier effect.
The failure to pay realistic interest is a major factor in the depressed economy and I suspect that the economy cannot recover unless this situation is corrected.
It's not madness at all, Mr
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 17:48 — jimmy (not verified)It's not madness at all, Mr Krugman, it's disaster capitalism at work. No disciple of Freidman is going to miss this most golden of opportunities to give us all a bracing dose of Chicago School of Economic's Olde Timey CureAll. We needn't worry if Ole Doc Freidman ever considered that the destruction of the middle class would be one of the side effects of his therapy.
It is madness when the rich
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 18:49 — john visher (not verified)It is madness when the rich get all the phony money. As if we don't need it more!
Disaster governmentalism can
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 19:03 — JadeQueen (not verified)Disaster governmentalism can saddle local people with unfunded mandates requiring bonds arranged by banking interests allied with federal officials. The collateral can be higher utility rates or property owned in common by localities. I am piling on to Marc Shapiro's call to discuss the real rate of inflation, for ordinary people, many of whom are losing jobs, hours, and savings. Another adverse effect from this can be loss of local care and responsibility for local assets to absentees who have little incentive to maintain what they have mandated. Creating more money does not fix everything. If you are related to the fixers, it may seem that way, but interest accrues until reality settles up.
Precisely the reason Wall
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 20:16 — Anonymous (not verified)Precisely the reason Wall Street Investment Banks should have been permitted to fail, the huge amount needed to save them was taken from main street. For jobs, education, infrastructure you name it. All banks would not have failed.
14 trillion is a massive amount, try it, you'll have trouble holding the zeros in your brain,
Mr. Krugman, I've been
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 21:41 — Deb Della Piana (not verified)Mr. Krugman, I've been saying this all along: Barack Obama should have chosen Krugman and Reich, not Geithner and Summers.
The whole "faith based" Fiat
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:01 — Bob (not verified)The whole "faith based" Fiat money system with 95% of the supply not even that but conjured up computer creations on their computers & created by indebting everyone could have been ended during the "crisis" when the Banks were weak. They could have been nationalized worldwide & a whole new monetary system could have been set up. It was not to be, the Political serfs of the banks reacted by making them stronger & bigger than they were & millions lost their homes & savings. I used to wonder how such a patently absurd system could survive even loose scrutiny until I realized that Religion which is nothing more than faith based absurdity selling eternal life based on myth is alive & well in the age of DNA & space travel. We, at least, the unwashed are just plain stupid & the elites benefit from these things so the beat goes on!
Krugman deliberately ignores
Wed, 09/29/2010 - 22:16 — Sargam (not verified)Krugman deliberately ignores the reality that there is a tipping point or critical threshold of national debt (gvmnt, corp, household) beyond which it becomes unpayable. The con game of fiat money leveraged by fractional banking and brokerage margin accounts must end somewhere. Especially when it is simultaneous around the world.
He is cheerleading on the continued accumulation of debt beyond this tipping point, accelerating the problem. And when it all collapses, do you think Mr. Judge will admit his fault? No. he will claim that if only everyone had doubled down again on debt
we would have been saved.
How do I know? Because he claims that economics works the opposite publicly than privately. If he can claim that, then presumably he can claim the same, morally.
I've tried for over an hour
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 00:08 — Scott ffolliott (not verified)I've tried for over an hour to post but this spam filter seems unable to accept my post.
'What a strange trip it has
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 05:32 — Anonymous (not verified)'What a strange trip it has been'. Indeed!
The 'Smoke and Mirrors' economic 'Growth', of some decades, fostered by the con-game association of 'Financial Pundit's and Slicksters-in -Power, is finally crashing down. In spite of endless manipulations by those-in -the-know, technically and legally, of lies, cover-ups, complete with world wide Media takeover, wars to stimulate the economy (and , bye the way, make off with the kitchen sink, during all the Necessary Expenditures) and other diabolical maneuvers,
the whole mess is unravelling for all to see
But who is looking?
I agree with Krugman's
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 07:52 — Econo-Duh (not verified)I agree with Krugman's points but can someone explain why it is bad if the yield goes up on a bond? Seems that would make people want to invest in it. There's an assumption or fact about bonds that I need to learn about. Can someone explain to me why the graph showing a line going up in rates is bad?
The number of times I tried
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:47 — Scott ffolliott (not verified)The number of times I tried to post has been denied for what reason other than a computer program that censors comments by algorithm
Rates going up means the
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:19 — Anonymous (not verified)Rates going up means the cost of selling the bond becomes more expensive, and the value from selling it goes down.
So, rising interest rates mean the bond issuer is having trouble selling his bonds.
The Point is: austerity, which was supposed to encourage bond buyers, has had the opposite effect. Why? Because the seller's economy (Ireland) is doing more poorly, i.e. is worth less, because of the austerity.
The rants about "fiat" currency are just that. If we went back to gold and silver, there would not be enough money in the world and world trade would collapse, as would domestic markets.
Borrowing to finance recovery is like borrowing to build a new factory when you know demand for your product will grow. You may owe money now, but you will recoup more money later.
When a country borrows in a depression, to create jobs and rebuild infrastructure, that is INVESTMENT, not frivolous spending, and its return will be highly positive--down the road.
The problem is: under Bush we borrowed and spent for frivolous reasons BEFORE the crash. So we started with a huge overload of unjustified debt.
Mr. Krugman, I've been Thu,
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:24 — Jack van Dij (not verified)Mr. Krugman, I've been
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 02:41 — Deb Della Piana (not verified)
Mr. Krugman, I've been saying this all along: Barack Obama should have chosen Krugman and Reich, not Geithner and Summers.
I repeat this comment, I agree with it.
The common man still takes
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:17 — Anonymous (not verified)The common man still takes the hit when big business loses, and we still lose when big business wins. It's time for little boys with enormous egos to grow up and become
responsible or take the fall for not doing so. And in case you didn't know - "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich." - Napoleon Bonaparte.
Isn't this all just about
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 16:08 — Anonymous (not verified)Isn't this all just about the rich...
The poor man doesn't really care about inflation. He earns his dollars and spends his dollars right away. If there is public debt, he's always forced to pay his share when it comes due.
Its the rich man who hates inflation. It destroys the value of the debts that are owed to him. It destroys the value of his accumulated dollars.
The rich man is afraid of the inflation caused by fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing, so he argues for austerity and against the debt needed to create it.
Am I missing something?
Poor people are neither as
Fri, 10/01/2010 - 11:45 — @21:08 (not verified)Poor people are neither as poor nor as stupid as you imagine.
If the poor person spends all her money because s(he) has no choice in the matter, s(he) may nevertheless have a clear idea what to do with a surplus if one were available.
Many people on the "poor" end of the American spectrum, even now, still have some disposable income, part of which they might save or invest if they had a trustworthy means of doing so.
Even a rock-bottom, paycheck-to-paycheck, strapped poor person notices inflation when her income buys less and less than it once did.
Yours is the most grotesquely patronizing purported defense of the poor that I have ever seen.
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 05:08 —
Sat, 10/02/2010 - 17:52 — Anonymous (not verified)Thu, 09/30/2010 - 05:08 — Scott ffolliott (not verified)
Go to the bottom of the page.
Hit "CONTACT US"
Scroll down to "General Feedback"
Copy the name of the article and your comment, and ask them to post it.
Debt forgiveness in the US
Tue, 10/05/2010 - 15:08 — Anonymous (not verified)Debt forgiveness in the US is the only way out of this mess. Until that happens, any attempts to continue paying off derivatives will destroy the world's economy. The 'brightest guys in the room' (just like with LTCM) have wrecked the entire world economy since derivative debt, totalling over $1.14 Quadrillion USD (according to Steve Pizzo's article 'Follow The Numbers') can never be paid off without empoverishing the rest of the world while enriching a small elite.
In order to bail out the
Tue, 10/05/2010 - 15:11 — Anonymous (not verified)In order to bail out the banks, the common man cannot continue to take the HIT.
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