Out of Iraq? Don't Hold Your Breath

Friday 14 May 2010

by: William Rivers Pitt, t r u t h o u t | Op-Ed

Out of Iraq? Don't Hold Your Breath
(Image: Jared Rodriguez / t r u t h o u t; Adapted: Staff Sgt. JoAnn S. Makinano / U.S. Air Force, designshard)

President Obama will not get the United States out of Iraq in his first term. If he wins a second term, it is highly unlikely he will get us out of Iraq before he finally leaves office.

Print that out and tack it to your wall. Six years from now, it will still be hanging there, yellow and curled, but entirely correct. We're not going anywhere.

Yeah, yeah, I know, the word from the White House ever since Obama first began to campaign has been that we'll be out of Iraq by 2011. That was the promise, oft-repeated, and I'm here to tell you that it's a load of bull. Iraq is the 51st state, now and forever, so praise the Lord and pass the taxpayer-funded ammunition, amen.

The reasons for this grim truth are myriad, and most recently have to do with another frenzy of violence and bloodshed in that ravaged, raped nation. A parliamentary election on March 7 failed to deliver majority control to either of the two major factions - one controlled by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, the other by current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - and the resulting power struggle has spilled into the streets. Again.

On Monday, more than 100 people were killed and 300 injured after a series of bombings and assassinations rippled across Iraq. In total, it appears there were more than 60 attacks; Baghdad, Mosul, Hilla, and other cities were rent by explosions and gunfire which, according to the power players, had a decidedly political edge. Matters have gotten so dangerous there that Allawi was compelled to lash out at his own government (such as it is) for sitting on their hands while people are getting killed:

Allawi says he is under constant threat and that the government is doing little to help protect him. "We live every single day under a threat that we are going to be assassinated," he says. "I ask for support from the government, as an ex-Prime Minister ... Nobody cares a damn." Asked to specify what kind of support he has asked for, Allawi says, "Cars, communication gear, these bomb-detection, anti-detonator things ... These cost a lot of money. It's not free of charge. We need the government to protect us as they protect others. But this is not happening. I have to go to personal friends to donate a car, an armored car. It's ridiculous."

Allawi is particularly furious that the impasse has allowed other rivals to whittle away at contested seats with a campaign of "de-Baathification" - that is, purging politicians with ties to Saddam Hussein's ousted Baath Party. "This smearing campaign was something unbelievable: the Baath Party is coming back to power, Saddam Hussein is coming out of his grave and things of this nonsense," he says. (Allawi's party crosses sectarian lines, while al-Maliki's is predominantly Shi'ite.)

The violence didn't end on Monday. On Tuesday, two bombs went off in Mosul, one targeting the Iraqi police force and the other targeting an Iraqi military patrol. A suicide car bomb went off at a police checkpoint in Falluja, and hundreds of students tried to storm a local Parliament building in the Kurdish region of Iraq after the abduction and killing of a Kurdish journalist.

This would all be disgusting by itself, but is made more so by the fact that these events have become so morbidly predictable. Advocates of the war, along with a herd of "professional" pundits, would argue that things are far better in Iraq than they used to be. Those unfortunate souls who have spent the first half of this week sweeping guts and eyeballs off the sidewalks, however, would probably beg to differ.

Which brings us to why we're not leaving. According to The Associated Press:

U.S. commanders, worried about increased violence in the wake of Iraq's inconclusive elections, are now reconsidering the pace of a major troop pullout this summer, U.S. officials said Tuesday. The withdrawal of the first major wave of troops is expected to be delayed by about a month, the officials said. Waiting much longer could endanger President Barack Obama's goal of reducing the force level from 92,000 to 50,000 troops by Aug. 31.

More than two months after parliamentary elections, the Iraqis have still not formed a new government, and militants aiming to exploit the void have carried out attacks like Monday's bombings and shootings that killed at least 119 people - the country's bloodiest day of 2010.

The threat has prompted military officials to look at keeping as many troops on the ground for as long as possible without missing the Aug. 31 deadline. A security agreement between the two nations requires American troops to be out of Iraq by the end of 2011.

In Baghdad and Washington, U.S. officials say they remain committed to the deadline, which Mr. Obama has said he would extend only if Iraq's security deteriorates. Getting out of Iraq quickly and responsibly was among Mr. Obama's top campaign promises in 2008. Extending the deadline could be politically risky back home - but so could anarchy and a bloodbath following a hasty retreat.

Two senior administration officials said the White House is closely watching to see if the Aug. 31 date needs to be pushed back - if only to ensure that enough security forces are in place to prevent or respond to militant attacks. Both spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the administration's internal discussions.

Already, the violence, fueled by Iraq's political instability, will likely postpone the start of what the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Army Gen. Ray Odierno, has called the withdrawal "waterfall" - sending home large numbers of troops in a very swift period.

Read between the lines of that carefully-worded report, and the reality of the situation becomes all too clear. We made such an incredible mess in Iraq that continued violence is a brass-bound guarantee. Every act of violence gives more fuel to those who argue for staying. It's a perfect circle, and it is not going to stop.

George W. Bush and his merry men got us into Iraq with the absolute intention of staying there forever. We've built a bunch of massive bases for exactly that purpose. Most people consider the Bush administration to be an abject failure, but in this they succeeded beyond even the wildest expectations. The companies that continue to rake in cash from our expenditures in that war are going to be building golden statues of Bush for a long time to come.

Whether President Obama is a prisoner of this situation, or is actively continuing the policy, is entirely irrelevant at this point. He may hate this war, or he may love it, but at the end of the day, he will continue in the manner of his predecessor.

We're there, and unless this country erupts in a frenzy of furious protest and civil disobedience, we're staying. Even that may not make the nut, but it would be awfully nice to see this country shake itself out of its stupor and do what needs to be done.

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Comments

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William Rivers Pitt has

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 17:39 — Tom Paine (not verified)

William Rivers Pitt has become the Cassandra of Truthout. On the basis of the evidence of continued political violence within Iraq, he announces that it is certain that President Obama will not withdraw American troops before the end of his second term. He makes no distinctions about the nature of that violence, i.e. whether it would threaten the viability of an elected government, and he attempts no analysis of Obama's motivations, political or otherwise. He merely predicts that American military involvement in Iraq will go and on and on. In other words, this isn't analysis based on evidence. It's a personal prediction. Because we cannot judge his evidence, since there is none, we have to wonder about his motive. And I have a thought about this: He wants this to be the future, since it would be proof of his doom-saying about Iraq for quite some time now.

Surprised it took Mr. Pitt

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 17:44 — Anonymous (not verified)

Surprised it took Mr. Pitt this long to reach this conclusion. But I think once the US dollars loses its reserve currency status or the US devalues the dollar (to pay off the deficit debt it's rapidly accumulating) the time will come when it won't be possible to pay bankster bonuses & continue to occupy Iraq & we will leave Iraq to whatever will happen. Just like in Vietnam.

" ... it would be awfully

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 17:52 — S.O. Teric (not verified)

" ... it would be awfully nice to see this country shake itself out of its stupor and do what needs to be done." Well, Bill, organize a march on Washington and/or the Pentagon and I'll go. Don't imply that I or any who want to see US out of Iraq [and Afghanistan/Pakistan] are apathetic unless you're willing to do something concrete.

The August 31st deadline is

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 18:23 — Raed Jarrar (not verified)

The August 31st deadline is being challenged by the spike of violence in Iraq, and by a drumbeat in Washington trying to using that violence as an excuse to justify prolonging the occupation.

But Giving into skepticism will take us to no where. Being this skeptical is as bad as believing that Obama will do our work for us, and that we don't need to do anything to end the occupation.

I think Mr. Pitts tone is damaging to our common cause. It's not in our interest to make easier for the Obama administration to break its promises. It is not productive to declare the battle lost before we even fight it.

A better approach is work hard and make sure that the plan for withdrawal becomes reality, and that this tragic war with Iraq comes to an end.

I agree with Mr. Pitt.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 18:40 — Duke (not verified)

I agree with Mr. Pitt. President Obama is part of the MIC, right now the most powerful force on earth. It took decades for the U.S. to get out of Viet Nam and Viet Nam did not have the Siren's lure of huge oil reserves (on land, even, no deep ocean drilling required, just have to use military force). Obama and Congress are surrounded by the super-rich (former Goldman Sachs, former lobbyists or soon to be lobbyists, etc,) lacking in compassion and with unlimited appetites of greed.
I thought Obama got elected on the principle of "Jobs Not Wars".

I agree with Mr. Pitt on the

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 18:46 — Moongal6 (not verified)

I agree with Mr. Pitt on the success of the Bush Administration regarding the occupation of Iraq. It was of course, intended in the plans of the PNAC. Which is still going strong. Oh, they never sleep. That is the frightening part. William Kristol has to have something to keep himself busy.

"Tom Paine" faults Pitt

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 19:57 — Tomo (not verified)

"Tom Paine" faults Pitt because "he attempts no analysis of Obama's motivations." But then who has gotten anywhere with that? One analysis might be "Obama is the slickest propagandist we have even had in the White House." Another analysis might be "Obama is the most cowardly man ever elected to the American Presidency." The truth might lie at either of these extremes, or in some mix of the two. Go figure!

obomber is a sick, power

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 21:40 — tioche (not verified)

obomber is a sick, power mad, war criminal- he Will lie and say his hollow meaningless blather... but he will do NADA for Peace !

I can no longer support the

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 23:30 — Anonymous (not verified)

I can no longer support the Democrats until they get us out of Iraq and Afghanistan among other things that they do not deliver on, but lead us on about, as Americans. This also includes their lies about growing unemployment in our economy for many, many years now, and their failure to open up Medicare for all Americans.

I hope Mr. Pitt, since this newspaper is covering the immigration issue a lot, will also consider and cover the way an immigration bill serves the interests of corporate America by supplying a fresh crop of young bodies to be cannon fodder in these criminal military adventures.

I am the mother of a son they want. Over my dead body I will add. Today, in conjunction with the administration's "push" for high schools to be encouraging young people to "go to college', our h.s. had "counselors" (who supposedly care about youths) also offer information about future opportunities in the military.

It must have been the act of a guardian angel that my son also encountered, on the same day, but after school, a couple of people with Veterans For Peace, who provided information about what a future in the military can actually mean. Such as the deaths of Afghani mothers, teachers, and children.

I think these veterans care a lot more about youths than school guidance counselors who participate in such propaganda campaigns.

Perhaps you can do articles on this too. One thing I can say for Elena Kagan -- whom Truthout is actively against as a nominee (and I neither agree or disagree there) -- at least she threw recruiters off the campus at Harvard.

Though of course, it's always the poor they go after for fresh bodies, and they don't throw them out, there.

They should just GET OUT of

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 23:35 — Anonymous (not verified)

They should just GET OUT of Iraq and Afghanistan.

The devious genius of the

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 00:13 — Out West (not verified)

The devious genius of the Bush cabal is proven once again. Bush never intended to leave Iraq once he attacked and he knew it would be tough for his successor to leave, as well. Obama caved on Iraq a long time ago. I think we need to stop worrying about what will happen when we leave. The reality is Iraq will never learn how to govern itself with our military in the background. We need to get out for them to move on. But we're afraid the result won't be pretty...and it probably won't be. It seems to me Vietnam did just fine after we left, despite countless warnings to the contrary. We need to buck up and get the hell out of there. But I agree with Pitt...it ain't happening, at least not right now.

Pentagon US has no intention

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 00:30 — Peter Edler (not verified)

Pentagon US has no intention to ever get out anywhere it's got in to. They're still in Germany and Japan, after 65 years! In this context Obama is irrelevant. Pete Edler, Stockhol

... and let's stop being

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 02:13 — Peter Edler (not verified)

... and let's stop being naive about this - Presidents come and go but Pentagon and Wall Street stay longer. It's money and military power that run America. But so what! Babylon, Egypt, Rome were also run by money and power. To see a silver lining we might take the long view. Iraq's been around for a very long time, frequently drenched in blood. Why should that suddenly stop? And why would it matter who is or isn't there? Everybody and everything comes and goes. Pete Edler, Stockholm

Tom Paine, the old trope:

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 03:34 — EmeraldGreenSea (not verified)

Tom Paine, the old trope: The First Casualty in War is the Truth is the evidence - the only evidence - W R Pitt need to draw any conclusions.

They ( The National Security State) have lied about everything - everything - from the very start. Mr. Pitt and everyone else on this planet would be lying to themselves (ourselves) if we start to believe them now.

Mr. Paine, what do you believe? What do you tell yourself?

Did you believe Obama when he campaigned as an agent of change?

When President Obama made that disgusting joke about Predator Drones at that black-tie dinner last week I believe he was mocking people like me: the very people who put him in office. Even when we win, we lose; thanks to the National Security State Democracy.

Mr. Paine, you should be on the Charlie Rose Show: you think that talk substitutes for thinking.

The wars benefit only

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 04:43 — Anonymous (not verified)

The wars benefit only Israel. The Zionists control
America. The Talmud rules. We are their host nation-- whose military and capital they are using to depopulate the Muslim world, while they loot and destroy the host nation, from the inside.

Dunkirk was a hasty

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 07:45 — Anonymous (not verified)

Dunkirk was a hasty retreat.

As long as the revolving door remains between the "Penta gone" and the M.I.C., this profit center and others will remain open and well fueled with cash and assets from the easiest mark on the planet.

The American sheeple!

Thank you again William for

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 08:20 — radline9 (not verified)

Thank you again William for the unadulterated truth. The war in Iraq is way too profitable for the military industrial complex for us to ever leave the middle east where 15 billion a month is being spent to keep the oil flowing. You are right, it will only end when we have finished bankrupting the country and can't afford it.

A Libertarian President

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 09:01 — Bill O'Rights (not verified)

A Libertarian President Would Not have gotten us into this mess and would have gotten us out as well. Ron Paul was 0ne of the few to vote against the invasion. Time to wake the Hell up, dust off, and choose the party that is actually the Peace party - it sure isn't the Dems anymore. The only problem is that the primaries are stolen using electronic voting machines so that no peace candidate ever makes it into the General Election, much less the debates leading up to it. I was a third generation loyal Democrat and worked for or supported the campaigns of many - including Dukakis, Carter, Kerry, etc. Now I am awake - Paul has been right from the beginning - on war, on banking and on restoring local governmental control and limiting Federal control. O is no 'constitutional scholar' - he's no different than the fellow before him - serving the banks and the war machine at the expense of the people. We are now starting to divide on racial and socioeconomic lines instead of returning to the Bill of Rights and the Constitution and operating as a Republic instead of a Military Dictatorship - what about 'unsigning' all those dictatorial signing orders that carried over from the previous administration? Get a clue, folks - the 'left/right' paradigm is a fraud.

That's right, William,

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 09:16 — Alan MacDonald (not verified)

That's right, William, "Don't hold your breath" ---
Hold onto the copter skid!

What's the next new popularized word coming to the New York Times?

How do you say 'Tet' in Iraqi Arabic?

Coming soon --- along with news video of copters pulling Americans off the roof of the Green Zone!

Alan MacDonald
Sanford, Maine

PS. Understatement of the year for 2010 ---- "This is not going to end well"

The Pentagon/war machine was

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 09:26 — Samui G (not verified)

The Pentagon/war machine was fully aware that establishing mega-bases in Iraq would entrench a U.S. presence for the long run. The Haliburtons / Blackwaters and other no bid contractors are laughing all the way to the bank.The more chaos the better. Sweeping up guts is good for business. Would love for you to be wrong on this one Mr. Pitt. Unfortunately you are not. As we as a country get inured to these atrocities.We can be assured of continuing the nightmare of dumping hundreds of billions into that sandy money pit.

I certainly agree that

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 12:08 — Anonymous (not verified)

I certainly agree that Rivers' analysis was extremely shallow - which I don't find unusual with him. He's a columnist, not a news person, and mediocre.

That said, I think his prediction just happens to be right. Here's why:

The surge didn't work. It wasn't based on anything more substantial than physically separating Sunnis and Shias. Most Sunnis were simply driven out of Baghdad, so of course there would be the semblance of peace --- but only until the Sunnis had a chance to regroup.

Why was it inevitable? Imagine the American civil war had a different ending. In addition to the Carpetbaggers flooding the south to snatch economic opportunity, Northern troops stayed several years more to do with blacks and whites what the surge actually did in Iraq. Then the troops put blacks in power, and demoted whites to the bottom.

Can you imagine whites would have simply accepted this very sudden change in status after being the supreme rulers for several generations? In fact, blacks after the civil war achieved a small amount of political power, but whites in the south, led by the Klan and the rich folks who manipulated the Klan, had reversed most, if not all, the gains in only two or three decades. Slavery and near-slavery lasted for many more decades.

Will Pitt is disgusted, and

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 13:49 — S. Wolf Britain (not verified)

Will Pitt is disgusted, and rightly so. That the U.S. government and military, after WW2 and Vietnam, so blatantly carries out entirely illegal wars of aggression, "the supreme international crime", in over three countries simultaneously (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, etc.) is more than enough to get anyone and everyone with a conscience and/or a true understanding of how much of a travesty this is, to be exceedingly disgusted to the point of it overflowing, as well it should overflow, just as the overwhelming number of buckets of human blood are overflowing and staining all of our hands.

And Will has it completely right. We will NEVER get out of Iraq. A huge media circus sideshow will be put on about the huge numbers of troops being withdrawn, if that ever truly happens, and little attention will be given to the tens of thousands of troops who will remain, and of those sent back there. They have to stay to defend the Green Zone and the many U.S. military bases there. There might be the token closing of a base or two, the ones which are the least strategic and were the least expensive to build, but the hell going on in Iraq will continue until Jesus returns in the clouds of heaven.

So who can blame Will Pitt, or me, and the many of other people the world over for being immensely disgusted. (Sic---no question mark.) The one country in the world which is supposed to be the ultimate bastion and beacon of the respect for and upholding of human rights, and for preventing crimes against peace and human rights violations, it the perveyor of more crimes against humanity and war crimes than any other country in the world, and in the history of the world for that matter. Rhetorically speaking, what is not to be disgusted about, especially as Americans with conscience. (Again, sic.)

You've often heard me saying that the U.S. and the world are going insane as never before; and that is true; but the U.S. has been insane for quite some time. The U.S. government and military mass-murdered well over one or two millions innocent civilians during WW2; who knows how many hundreds of thousands of innocent people in Korea; well over two, probably three, million innocent peasants in the jungles of Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam; over three million innocent non-combatants in Iraq (since 1991), Afghanistan and Pakistan, etc.; and the mass-murder and overflowing buckets of blood continue to deluge us, while We the American People allow it to go on and on and on...

Thus, once more rhetorically speaking, what is not to be disgusted about.

17;08 You judge " Rivers" to

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 14:31 — EmeraldGreenSea (not verified)

17;08 You judge " Rivers" to be shallow and then you draw a foolish analogy between Iraq and your shallow analysis of a war that happened 150 years ago.

At least in your war the combatants wore uniforms and all sides spoke your language (except for African Americans who had to learn it as best they could tied to the whipping post), I guess that 's how your able to understand it so well.

We Americans are so arrogant when we speak of sectarian warfare or strife in such far off places and yet ignore the greatest barrier to understanding between people: Language!

Arrogant, ignorant and agnostic are all related some how in the Greek dictionary. But I'm not a linguist, so your on your own. Maybe they know (have gnosis) over at the Weekly Standard.

Money shot! WRP has gotten

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:42 — Anonymous (not verified)

Money shot!

WRP has gotten this one cleanly on target.

@"A Libertarian President"

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 19:52 — Anonymous (not verified)

@"A Libertarian President" [Sat, 05/15/2010 - 14:01] — Bill O'Rights (not verified) — "A Libertarian President Would Not have gotten us into this mess and would have gotten us out as well."

A Libertarian president most certainly WOULD have gotten us into this mess; ANY president would, and will. It is The Game.

It should be crystal clear by now (after nearly 50 years of the repeating pattern on the wall) that it matter not one whit who becomes president. Every one of them serves, and has served, not the People but The People. Hint hint.

I reckon Israel is the 51st

Sun, 05/30/2010 - 05:13 — Teejay (not verified)

I reckon Israel is the 51st State of the USA so Iraq would be the 52nd.

The prediction I use is that

Sat, 07/24/2010 - 21:45 — Anonymous (not verified)

The prediction I use is that we will stay so long as there is still oil to be obtained and the bases are there to acquire Iran's oil as well, could even be used for Saudi Arabia's if their people ever decide to revolt. Truthout once had an article about Iraq's people coming together after the first Bush-whacking and restoring their infrastructure in about a year (of course, Bush #1 chose not to occupy that land, even though the U.S. continued bombing and blockading, resulting in the deaths of many children). I used to wonder how once rational, intelligent Germans became saddled with the notion of conquering the world for themselves; our PR has adapted many of their methods and there is only a thin line between USA#1 and "Germany over all," the Nazi motto. As England showed the world, imperialism was nothing new with Hitler, even if he proved more violent against those deemed inferior to the "master race"--the old "divide and conquer."

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