The Great Tax Cut Debate - Myths and Facts

by: Robert Weiner and Varun Saxena, t r u t h o u t | News Analysis

The Great Tax Cut Debate - Myths and Facts
(Image: Jared Rodriguez / t r u t h o u t; Adapted: Georgios Karamanis, gtorelly)

In the lame-duck Congress agenda, perhaps the most substantive debate is over whether to continue tax breaks for the rich. President Obama and most Congressional Democrats want to extend the Bush tax cuts for 98 percent of Americans, everyone making under $250,000. Republicans want to extend the tax cuts for everybody despite Bush's tax bill enacted in June 2001 to suspend the tax cuts at the end of 2010 in order to restore needed revenue. If nothing is done, everyone's taxes will rise.

There is room to maneuver - Ohio's John Boehner, the House Republican leader and soon to be speaker, said he'd vote for tax breaks for the middle class without the wealthy if that's the only choice. There is consensus by both parties that the sluggish economy makes this the wrong time to raise taxes on the middle class. In the Senate, current Leader Reid said he will press for a vote.

Republicans portray the Bush tax cuts as similar to President John F. Kennedy's. That is a poor analogy. Kennedy cut the top tax rate from an exorbitant 91 percent to 70 percent. In contrast, Bush cut the top tax rate from a historically low 39.6 percent to 35 percent. By increasing enforcement and cracking down on loopholes, including the use of foreign subsidiaries for tax evasion, Kennedy increased government revenue. On the other hand, the Bush rich tax cuts will cost the nation $700 billion dollars in government revenue, and Republicans are fighting limiting outsourcing and foreign loopholes. In part due to a smart taxation policy, Kennedy created 1.2 million jobs per year in office; Bush was losing 700,000 jobs a month his last year.

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"Trickle-down" economics has not worked since Herbert Hoover tried it. Every dollar devoted to the middle class causes the economy to grow three times faster than a dollar for the rich, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Millionaires save more of their income gained by tax cuts. Middle-class families spend more. Lower taxes for the rich leave deficits that must be paid for by the middle class, taking the very money we'd give working families.

Since 1900, Democratic presidents have produced a 12.3 percent annual return on the S&P 500, Republicans only 8 percent. GDP growth since 1930 is 5.4 percent for Democratic presidents and 1.6 percent for Republicans.

President Bush inherited from Bill Clinton an annual federal budget surplus of $236 billion, the largest in American history. Clinton balanced the budget for the first time since 1969. Budget surpluses were expected to total $5.6 trillion between FY 2002 and 2011. Despite this, Bush transformed these surpluses into a $1.1 trillion annual deficit in just three years, because of Iraq and his relentless push for permanent tax cuts for wealthy Americans - a new iteration of Hoover's equally catastrophic trickle-down theory. Bragging about a $239 billion deficit set such a low standard for excellence that he can claim horrific failure as a good thing for the country. The Bush annual loss of three-quarter trillion dollars is totally unprecedented.

Bush presided over the loss of two million American jobs in his first two and one-half years and net gained three million in eight years, the worst since Hoover - and left office by generating the worst recession since the Great Depression. Clinton created 23 million jobs. It's not rocket science to figure out the difference: Clinton, tax breaks for the middle and lower incomes who actually spend the money, no Iraq war; Bush, disproportionate tax breaks for the wealthy (50 percent to the wealthiest 1 percent by 2010), over a trillion dollars committed for a war monetarily benefiting only a few military contractors and a financial sieve for the country - a war which incidentally misfired and found no WMDs.

Democratic presidents spread the wealth around through spending on needed social programs and targeting tax cuts to lower- and middle-income Americans - stimulating the economy more broadly. Republicans pump into defense contractors and high-income Americans, creating a significant detriment to the whole economy with larger deficits and higher interest rates.

At a press conference on September 10, President Obama asked, "Why would we borrow money on policies that won't help the economy and help people who don't need help?"

Retiring Rep. David Obey (D-Wisconsin), House Appropriations Committee Chairman, has complained of our limited resources now because of President Bush's "gargantuan deficits he created with that stupid war and those stupid tax cuts paid for with our money."

It's already an odd alliance - Obama and Boehner in the House, though only if both are pushed to the brink. Similarly, a Senate vote would show the country can actually get something done. It would be unfortunate if the "something" is nothing but a pander to the extremists who want the rich to get richer, at the expense of America's workers.

Democratic Versus Republican Presidents' Economic Indicators

In six major criteria - GDP growth, per capita income growth, job creation, unemployment reduction, inflation reduction and federal deficit reduction - for the ten post-World War II presidencies until Bush, there is a record to track the reality of Democratic versus Republican economic success.

Democrats

  • President Obama passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that it saved as many as three million jobs. Eight million Americans lost their jobs during the recession that he inherited, but the economy is recovering and has experienced eight consecutive months of private sector job growth.
  • President Clinton balanced the budget for the first time since 1969. Budget surpluses were expected to total $5.6 trillion between FY 2002 and 2011. Under Clinton, the economy created 23 million jobs.
  • Lyndon B. Johnson's "Great Society" created robust economic expansion, first in both GDP and personal income growth. He also reduced unemployment from 5.3 percent to 3.4 percent. Economic growth remained robust through most of LBJ's presidency.
  • JFK campaigned on the idea of getting America moving again and he did. Under Kennedy, America entered its largest sustained expansion since World War II. GDP and personal income growth were second only to Johnson, all with minimal inflation. Republicans portray the Bush tax cuts as similar to JFK's. That is a poor analogy. Kennedy cut the top tax rate from an exorbitant 91 percent to 70 percent. In contrast, Bush cut the top tax rate from a historically low 39.6 percent to 35 percent. By increasing enforcement and cracking down on loopholes, including the use of foreign subsidiaries for tax evasion, Kennedy increased government revenue. On the other hand, the Bush rich tax cuts will cost the nation $700 billion dollars in government revenue, and Republicans are fighting limiting outsourcing and foreign loopholes. In part due to a smart taxation policy, Kennedy created 1.2 million jobs per year in office; Bush was losing 700,000 jobs a month his last year.
  • The economy added ten million jobs under Jimmy Carter despite high inflation; Carter ranks first in job creation next to Clinton, during just four years in office. Carter also reduced government spending as a percentage of GDP.
  • Truman's second term saw the fastest GDP growth and the sharpest reduction in unemployment of any president surveyed (of course, FDR's post Hoover-depression New Deal jobs are first).

Republicans

  • George W. Bush created only three million jobs in eight years - the slowest rate of job creation since the government began keeping records. In addition, he added four trillion dollars to the deficit and left office with the nation in a financial crisis that lead to the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
  • Ronald Reagan focused on reducing the cost of capital through cutting tax bracket highs for the rich, and reducing the size and scope of government. But, instead of lowering spending, Reagan shifted money to the military (i.e. Star Wars) and the deficit tripled with the tax cuts and military spending - as under Bush II. On November 16, Rachel Maddow pointed out that of the most recent five presidents, Reagan actually increased the national deficit by the largest percentage, 186 percent - destroying the myth about Republican fiscal responsibility.
  • Under Gerald Ford, the deficit soared and the unemployment rate grew from 5.3 to 8.3 percent in just two and one-half years. His "WIN" (Whip Inflation Now) buttons were no match for economic inactivity.
  • It was under Richard Nixon that inflation started to spiral out of control, from 4.4 percent to 8.6 percent, and the deficit shot up from $2.8 billion to $73.7 billion.
  • The Eisenhower years were characterized by slow growth (2.27 percent annualized GDP growth) and relatively high unemployment (7.7 percent at end of term).
  • George H. W. Bush had the poorest record for both GDP and income growth. During his single term, the deficit ballooned (from $152 billion to $255 billion), more than under every president but his son and Ford.

(Sources: White House Office of Management and Budget, US Department of Labor and White House Council of Economic Advisors)

Chart Prepared by Varun Saxena, John Larmett and Robert Weiner, "Robert Weiner Associates Public Affairs and Issues Strategies."

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This work by Truthout is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United States License.





     

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Robert Weiner, of Washington, DC, is a former White House spokesman and communications director for House Government Operations Committee.

Varun Saxena, from Dublin, Ohio, is policy analyst at Robert Weiner Associates.


Comments

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Just waiting for the

Just waiting for the right-wing whackadoodles to come on this post and deny reality. Here's the reality to the most basic: the Rethuglicans only care about the rich, and most or many Dems care about everyone in America and whether everyone gets at least a roof over his or her head and some food to eat.



Excellent historical lesson.

Excellent historical lesson. One small complaint: I would ask you not to quote, mention, or refer to my favorite TV personality, Rachel Maddow. If you have any even slightly moderate Republicans reading this, they will dismiss it as "liberal lies" or something similar, undermining the premise of your "truthout" organization. The information Rachel used was easy to get. Get it and quote from it next time, ok? Please?



Robert and Verun, Wow, what

Robert and Verun, Wow, what an extremely well-balanced, factual, calm, and powerful retelling of the true history of tax policy since FDR.

If the president would hold a press conference, read what you have written (word for word) and then say we will cut taxes for the middle class only or no one at all, what a day that would be.



He missed the basic point.

He missed the basic point. The Bush tax cuts did not reduce taxes for the rich down to working class level. It reduced their tax rate to 15% while working class people pay 30-40%. The American people don't know this, and the media don't tell us. I found out from the G2mil blog.



As long as people focus on

As long as people focus on left and right they seem to be unaware that it is really an up and down issue. Those whose incomes are on the down side are constantly getting a boot to the head by those whose incomes are in the upper stratosphere (or higher) ...this is a CLASS war of unmitigated GREED and arrogance which has been going on and on and getting more vicious all the time. Those who wish to believe only in the great myth of what we were supposed to represent,or supposed to be, instead of the reality of what we have become, DO stand mostly to the "right" of the American political spectrum, but there are too many exceptions to that rule when greedy $elf-interest is involved.



Pray for gridlock.

Pray for gridlock.



It's time to filibuster ANY

It's time to filibuster ANY tax cut proposal in the Senate, especially any proposal to retain the Bush tax rates fro the wealthy.



Obviously cutting taxes

Obviously cutting taxes doesn't increase jobs, the evidence is the last 10 years. I'd rather see the Bush tax cuts disappear for everyone than to continue tax cuts for the wealthy. I can see compromise like changing the definition of wealthy to $500,000 instead of $250,000.
Just as important is cutting out outsourcing and limiting foreign loopholes.



And how did Bush drive the

And how did Bush drive the economy into the ditch? He lied us into a costly and illegal war and rewarded the leaders of the faction that supported his lies by cutting their taxes and encouraging them to move their banking and corporate homes off shore. It's time for our (finally) duly elected President and his allies in Senate and House to stand up and end the criminal welfare giveaways to the richest people in the country.



The elephant in the room

The elephant in the room here is the one simple fact: 98% of American families make under$250k.

This income has on average gone down 10% in the last 10 years.

The other 2%, their income has on average gone up 300% in the last 10 years.

The 15% rate is capital gains tax, which those making under$250 aren't very familiar with.



Re: "class warefare" claims

Re: "class warefare" claims and fears

When corporations act in self-interest, they are the engines of our economy; but when regular folks act in self-interest, they are accused of fighting class warfare.

Someone please explain to me why working and poor people should not pursue our real economic interests. To do so--voting for good wages, a clean environment, and adequate funding of public goods--seems to me to be exactly the approach strong capitalists and patriots take!

I urge everyone to work in our own best interests, and to take a long enough view to understand our best interests at least a few generations into the future.



Figuring out who gets a tax

Figuring out who gets a tax cut and who doesn't is secondary to (in my opinion) our massive military spending.
Of course I don't think the top 2% deserve a tax cut, I think income over $500k should be taxed at JFK's cut rate of 70%, with deductions of course, for charitable donations, etc.
But we could afford to leave taxes as they are if we didn't spend 54% of our budget on the military. We don't need such a big military, we don't need the war on terror, or the war on drugs, or the war to defend Israel, or the war to control Colombia's oil, or any other war.

Why is everyone afraid to talk about scaling back the military spending?



Great story but my

Great story but my Republican friends' eyes glaze over the moment anything critical is said of anyone in their party. If we are ever going to educate Americans about what is happening we must stop the Democrat/Republican labels. Stop saying Bush tax cuts. Say the tax cuts enacted in such and such year made taxes lower for the extreme rich than for the middle class. If these tax exemptions remain in effect, taxes will have to be raised on the middle class. Then list which lawmakers are voting to raise taxes on the middle class. Do not label them D or R, only list their state. Let them go home and explain to their voters why it is OK to tax the middle class more than the very rich.



Taxing the rich will hurt

Taxing the rich will hurt the economy? Baloney!

I was a small business owner for 25 years. If I wanted to add more jobs or invest in new technology, I did it with pre-tax corporate dollars, not by taking an enormous salary that would be taxed. I screwed the taxman by investing company dollars rather than personal dollars. End of story.

See complete article here:
http://moneyedpoliticians.net/2010/11/05/taxing-the-rich-will-hurt-the-economy-baloney/

Jack Lohman
http://MoneyedPoliticians.net



Another of the elephants in

Another of the elephants in the room is that the accepted truth of 9/11 bears as much relevance to fact as the Warren Commission determinations on the Kennedy assassination.

The results of each were increased tensions manufactured by Washington think-tanks addicted to the illusion of power.

I prefer the more honest crowd control of a rock concert.



Military spending should

Military spending should have been cut already long ago. Needless wars only enrich the weapon makers and make us more hated abroad. Anyone who defends tax cuts for the upper 2% should be voted out of office.



I remember when most TV news

I remember when most TV news never bothered to define the term, "taxes" they just referred to higher or lower taxes. Anyone who tried to go into details; like whose taxes, was quickly dispatched by the magic words, "class war."

Everybody knew that when the politicians or talking heads said those magic words, no more verboten, heretical talk could take place.

Now we can at least talk about the fact that the old, "trickle down" plan was just about the wealthiest 2% getting richer by 300% in the past 10 years while the other 98% have lost 10%.

The Tea Bagg biters seem to like it when their idols insert a splintered stick into their special bodily orifices. The one hole into which the light of solar radiation never pen-e-trates.

It may be hard to extract the splintered object once it is in place. I have seen such intransigence. Once committed to a mistake, some will prefer to just keep the painful foreign object rather that admit to being wrong. Some will keep it until they get septic and die.--or beg for health care.

I guess the rest of us will just have to wait until the infected ones finally die with decayed bowel tissue stinking of rotten dead animals.



Looks like the right-wing

Looks like the right-wing whackadoodles didn't bother to try to deny reality on Truth Out today. Heck, they'll do that in the House of Representatives for the next two years, where it really counts to deny reality. Regarding who's really rich, let's remember that under Ronald Raygun, less tax brackets were enacted, via a Democratic Congress capitulating to the Rethuglicans then. That's just what they wanted: tie the upper middle class with the rich by putting them all in the top bracket. That's got to change. If Pelosi and Reid have any sort of spine or balls left, they will see to it that another top bracket is created before this Congress ends: another top bracket of $1,000,000.00 and over, and they have their Bushista tax cuts end and raised to 40%! And they should also bracket that 15% tax on dividends: the millionaires can pay 25% on their dividends, and anyone else making less can keep the 15%. It would certainly help a small investor like myself!



Throughout the history of

Throughout the history of U.S. administrations, higher tax policies have increased jobs and tax cut policies have increased unemployment. (See BLS and archival statistics.)The government has no more capability of altering that fact than it has of altering the effects of gravity.

Defining $250,000 as "wealthy" is equally out of touch with the facts. The classic definition of the number of "very wealthy" is almost identical with number of cities of 50,000 or more. Moneywise, $250,000 is numerically equivalent to less than a dime tip on a hundred dollar bar tab. If we cut government expenditures by laying off minimum wage government employees to fund a cut in the tax rate from 30% t0 15%, each of the very wealthy will receive the income previously being paid to 24,000 now unemployed people.



Speaking of whackadoodles,

Speaking of whackadoodles, it's nice to see the 9/11 Truthers will take any opportunity they can to trot out their nuttiness, even if it's off-thread. Way to go, guys.



Insanity is described as

Insanity is described as repeatedly making the same mistake hoping for a different outcome.
Tax cuts for the rich does not create jobs.
Trickle down economics does not work.

Stop the insanity.



It should be repeated over

It should be repeated over and over ad nauseam that the tax cuts could only be passed IF they were temporary. Why? Because they were not "revenue neutral". In other words, when enacted the 10 year projections proved they were unsustainable and thus had to sunset. The Republicans very shrewdly figured out that they had the best of both worlds tax-wise. If a Democrat was in the White House in 2010 then they would scream the bloody murder they are now screaming. If a Republican was President then well, his hands were tied. He would be honor bound to follow the wisdom of his predecessor who made them temporary. They were also betting heavily back then on the streets of Iraq being paved with gold. Ha ha, the joke's on us.



No, Anonymous on 11/21 at

No, Anonymous on 11/21 at 21:22 - If your Republican friends' eyes glaze over when confronted with a difficult truth, it's time for you to get better friends. You know what they say: with friends like these, who needs Republicans. Yeah, you DO have to admit that the GOP wants to make everything easy f0r their rich bribers while the middle class sinks. If the Democrats in Congress weren't beholden to whatever entity has a gun to their heads, maybe your bravery-challenged friends could come out of their sleep and participate. Stop trying to pretend the Republicans aren't responsible for the War Tragedy, the Economic Trajectory, and the Ignorance Travesty guys like Arne Duncan like to call Education.