The Second Great Depression Bogeyman

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Op-Ed

The Second Great Depression Bogeyman
(Photo: martnpro; Edited: Jared Rodriguez / t r u t h o u t)

Our political leaders continually assert that we should be thanking them that we are not in a second Great Depression rather than complaining about how bad things are. The second Great Depression theme came up repeatedly in the debate over the reappointment of Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. It also featured prominently in Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's defense of his handling of the AIG bailout.

While we should all be thankful that we are not in a second Great Depression, just as we should be thankful that the world has not been destroyed by nuclear war, the "Great Depression" defense is a tool of fools and liars. Exactly what set of events in the world would have given us a second Great Depression, defined as a decade of double-digit unemployment?

It is almost certainly true that if we had let the cascade of bank collapses continue in the fall of 2008, taking down not just Lehman, but also Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, along with many smaller banks, that the current downturn would have been more severe. But what would have prevented the Fed from subsequently flooding the system with liquidity and the government from boosting the economy and employment with large-scale jobs programs? There is certainly nothing obvious that would have interfered with these efforts to boost the economy and restore employment.

We do know how to create demand. It is really very simple - you just have to spend money; most people are willing to work for it. Since Keynes we have known how to create jobs and reduce unemployment in a downturn, even if politicians may lack the courage to act. There never was any basis for a fear of a second Great Depression. This is simply an invention by those who are trying to justify their disastrous economic policy. The second Great Depression line is then repeated by people who consider themselves to be knowledgeable about economics, but in reality don't have a clue as to what they are saying.

It is important to come to grips with this second Great Depression bogeyman since, obviously, anything is better than a second Great Depression. As long as people believe that our leaders saved us from this horror, then they won't be sufficiently outraged about a bailout that left Goldman Sachs and the rest of the Wall Street crew richer than ever. They also won't be nearly as angry as they should be about economic policies that are projected to leave us with excessive rates of unemployment for many years into the future. And the public will not be nearly as mad as it should be about the incredible ineptitude of policymakers and economists that allowed for this collapse in the first place.
The reality is that we got into this mess because of an overwhelming excess of greed and stupidity on the part of the Wall Street bankers and the people deciding economic policy. We continue to face excessive rates of unemployment because of a continuing reluctance to pursue policies that can restore the economy to health.

Very briefly, one of these policies is more government spending to create jobs. The government can employ people directly; it can give companies incentives to employ people, and it can give tax cuts that give people more money to spend. Mix and match in large enough quantities and we will get the unemployment rate down to more acceptable levels.

Similarly, the Federal Reserve Board can target a moderate inflation rate (3-4 percent) with its monetary policy. This would both lower real interest rates and help to alleviate the debt burden that is preventing many households from spending.

Another route to boost the economy would be to deliberately push down the value of the dollar against other currencies. This would boost US net exports and get our trade deficit closer to balance.

Finally, if we can't boost the economy to levels of output that support full employment, we can go the other way and adopt policies that encourage people to work fewer hours. Germany and the Netherlands have aggressively pushed "work sharing" policies that have kept unemployment from rising in the downturn. Thanks to work sharing, the unemployment rate in the Netherlands is less than 4.0 percent even though they have had a larger loss of GDP than the United States.

For political reasons, the president and Congress are reluctant to pursue these paths. However, a population that is suffering through double-digit unemployment may not be very sympathetic to the political concerns of its leaders.

However, the public will be hesitant to demand stronger action if they are convinced that they should be thankful that we have avoided a second Great Depression. So, it is important that the people know that they have nothing to be thankful for: our leaders wrecked the economy, end of story. It's time that they take the measures necessary to set things right, even if it is a bit unsettling to the Wall Street boys and other powerful interests.

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Dean Baker is a macroeconomist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He previously worked as a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor at Bucknell University. He is a regular Truthout columnist and a member of Truthout's Board of Advisers.


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Baker is a delusional

Baker is a delusional writer, a faux progressive. How appropriate that his office is just up the street from Coporate Law Titans like Arent Fox.
First off, the assumption is that millions of Americans aren't only suffering through the worst depression they've ever known, is the right wing accusatory tone of saying that people will work for money, when a wealth of evidence suggests that the bubble makers were in fact stealing to get money.
If we had experienced a "crash" it's quite possible that would have prevented millions from losing their homes to foreclosure.
I wish Truthdig would stop publishing Baker,
he's a cheerleader for the status quo.



Anonymous, I read your post

Anonymous, I read your post twice and still don't know what the hell you are talking about.



Indeed! The "three bums"

Indeed! The "three bums" started this slo-mo train wreck in '63 Dallas and the denouement awaits as the Greatest Depression of the "greatest generation" finally precipitates from the burning Bushs.



I think I understand what

I think I understand what 17:54 is talking about. Baker has an elitist, birds eye take on human misery, I think that's the only way you can be broadcast to web outlets. He isn't calling for anyone to be arrested, when, the entire bubble and subsequent recession was caused by fraud.
In 2008 the current downturn would have been more severe because CEPR would have had their funding cut. But since the Banks, with their subprime bets and elaborate swindles would have been swept away - you'd have the abilityr for people to stay in their fraudulently appraised homes. The Gubbmint could have started a massive WPA type program. The problem is Baker is working for Ford (etc). He's a liar, and not a progressive at all.



Hedges says it best. (

Hedges says it best. ( Although Baker isn't a coffee boy at CEPR, he's still got "free reign" to please the owner/ruler class with his drivel):

Reporters who witness the worst of human suffering and return to newsrooms angry see their compassion washed out or severely muted by the layers of editors who stand between the reporter and the reader. The creed of objectivity and balance, formulated at the beginning of the 19th century by newspaper owners to generate greater profits from advertisers, disarms and cripples the press.

And the creed of objectivity becomes a convenient and profitable vehicle to avoid confronting unpleasant truths or angering a power structure on which news organizations depend for access and profits. This creed transforms reporters into neutral observers or voyeurs. It banishes empathy, passion and a quest for justice. Reporters are permitted to watch but not to feel or to speak in their own voices. They function as “professionals” and see themselves as dispassionate and disinterested social scientists. This vaunted lack of bias, enforced by bloodless hierarchies of bureaucrats, is the disease of American journalism.



"While we should all be

"While we should all be thankful that we are not in a second Great Depression, just as we should be thankful that the world has not been destroyed by nuclear war, the "Great Depression" defense is a tool of fools and liars."

Thank you. This is a correct understanding & evaluation of the bogeyman and bogey-women that haunt us through the media's complicity with the hollow language perpetually and robotically excreted by the U.S.government. The media is the mouthpiece of our right wing, neoliberal government of true believing Friedmanites. The same insane logic was used regarding Bush and Cheney protecting us from "another terrorist" attack." In this day and age, it's not what you do that matters, but what doesn't happen. We try to define our worth by the lack of tragedy. What a tragedy.



ROME burns as government

ROME burns as government fiddles--the electorate!
Stay calm! Be brave! Wait for the signs!



The Republicans have always

The Republicans have always wanted to take as much money as possible from the average person and give it to corporations. That is what "shrinking government" is really about. Take out every government program that helps people and replace it with programs that enrich corporations. But they also have rigged the laws to give corporations as many advantages as possible, and they rigged the courts in the same way. Unfortunately, too many Democrats have gone along with some or all of these tactics. The bank bailouts were just the latest and most spectacular example. If the health care bill is passed, that will be another example. And they are trying to do the same thing with the energy bills. Is there anything we can do? Short of a revolution, I don't think so, especially with the recent Supreme Court decision to allow corporations to completely control the government by flooding campaigns with money. Where does that money come from? From us, of course, in the form of goods and services we buy as well as tax dollars. We could defeat them by refusing to buy anything from huge corporations, but it's almost impossible to function in these times if you do that. We could defeat them by refusing to work for them, but then most of us would have no job. So I think the end of civilization will be inevitable, as the corporations consume everything and we simply implode.



Mr. Baker's point is a good

Mr. Baker's point is a good one, if Wall St. hadn't been bailed out the current recession would be worse and Main St might be hurting a little more, but Main St is hurting anyway and the tycoons and charlatans that caused this mess have been rewarded for their fraud and chicanery, rather than being hauled off to prison and/or made to eat their toxic (non)assets. To their dire scenarios my ears are deaf, they should have been allowed to fail. For so many years they complained that "Gov't is the problem, regulations cut profits, etc", and then, when their wild bets go south, gov't and the taxpayer money it commands is the solution. This is a rehash of the crash of '29, FDR wisely concluded that if Wall St needed to be bailed out with taxpayer money then it should be subject to regulation by the taxpayers. Thank Phil Gramm and the Conservative Onslaught for torpedoing the Glass-Steagal Act and so many other "smaller gov't" reforms that landed us in this mess. We need a robust gov't that is responsive to the citizenry to stand up to Big Money and Big Corporations.



It's called CAPITALISM,

It's called CAPITALISM, folks. Doing exactlly what it is designed to do, rape the public of everything worthwhile, hoping it's administrators have at least the good sense of dogshit to at least control their canibalistic greed to keep it from going over the edge into the abyss. Alas, they repeatedly demonstrate total lack of self control to even save their own ass. Staying the course and the public will not forever be around to bail them out.
Capitalism: The root of all evil.
~John L.



Let's all wait for Baker to

Let's all wait for Baker to walk away from his underwater mortgage.



In an another article of

In an another article of Baker's - he tries to make a case for just walking away from an underwater mortgage, This is advice that banks are starting to take a lot of interest in. It may be a final way for mega-banks to profit from their extortion. What's missing from 2010 articles in general (and from a quasi-corporate pipe like CEPR) is talk of how appraisers, real estate agents, mortgage companies and even regulators conspired to rape millions of Americans. Will Baker write about John C Dugan or Larry Summers? (We need more articles about these a$$holes)



As a "card-carrying

As a "card-carrying economist" myself I disagree with Mr. Baker frequently, and from his left. But to portray him as a right-wing stooge, as several posters do, is (IMNSHO) simply ignorant, both of his positions and of the issues.

Please recognize, as I think Mr. Baker does, that the tyranny against which we are fighting is not the tyranny against which the Founders of this Republic fired the first shot. It is the tyranny which replaced them, of which Adam Smith was rightly if a bit naively fearful (as were several of the Founders, especially Jefferson), the tyranny of the corporation.

And the modern corporation is the handmaiden of the modern bank.

This tyranny may eventually melt away, as did the feudal aristocracy, or it may endure indefinitely as does the Church of Rome. But to demonize as insufficiently radical someone who not only calls the tyrants on their lies, but proposes ways based on solid empirical and theoretical knowledge to reduce the immediate damage from their criminal acts is not very smart.

You guys that want the Revolution NOW, get out there in the street with your AKs and get it on. Please don't.



Baker: Gee, why didn't Obama

Baker: Gee, why didn't Obama think of that?

He just proposed a lot of the things you mentioned. Yes we need more but let's get what he has on the table done. We are up against the worst Democracy thrashers we've seen in this Country.

Also, we all need to rethink and re-blast the people responsible for this what, "mini crash"? It is certainly big enough for me. Jon Kyl was interviewed by NPR the day after the State of the Union speech. He groused that Obama should stop talking about the state of affairs he inherited. He didn't say and do what.

The message is we are supposed to forget what these crooks and criminals did to America. What an altogether absurd thing to say but some will people will no doubt agree with him, even here. The thing is no one will ever forget this "mini crash." Just like the one in 1929, books will be written, studies will be done, people will be living with the result, for decades. We should never forget these criminals.

I think we should all tell these creeps that we will stop talking about their mess when all of it is cleaned up and America once again has a stabilized economy, rule of law is again our way of life, the crooks are out of power, we have true elections, we have a tolerant society, people are back to work, and we are once again a Democracy.

Don't let people like Kyl spin what we should think or do. Of course, we won't forget. No body will forget ever. We should cram that down these creeps throats just as they try to cram their agenda down ours. And we should start again to adhere to majority rule and take our Country back from these deluded people who still believe in Communism and the Sat. matinee thinking that they can rule the world.



A depression is defined by

A depression is defined by its depth and breadth and length. 1 in 6 are on foodstamps, 10%(more like 20% actually) are unemployed, 1 in 8 loans in foreclosure.

We have the depth and breadth,only time will tell if we have the length. There has been no economic reform, the same system that crashed in 2008 is still in place, it could crash again, as we now know now is very possible.

The nation as whole is polarized, unstable and in the midst of an economic maelstrom. They didn't save us from a depression, because they couldn't, all they did was hide the true nature of the economy, green shoots and happy talk and let the banks continue to carry bad loans on their books.

"the number of banks in danger of failing shot up to 702 at the end of last year, the highest level since 1993, as the industry continues to struggle in its recovery from the so-called Great Recession, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Tuesday." - L.A. Times

When the corporate media begins to call it The Great Recession, it only a matter of time until it becomes known as The Great Depression 2.